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New art of war

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Maharbbal View Drop Down
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  Quote Maharbbal Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: New art of war
    Posted: 22-Oct-2006 at 13:36
Actually I reckon there is one major difference between Bush and Savimbi: the president of the US went to war certain he would win in a few days and would be able to shape the future according to his will as nobody would be there to tell him "no I disagree"; on the countrary UNITA's leader's position was "let's go to war so after that we can impose our conditions in the negociations to come".

Bush went to war ready to face a total war but soon had to face a "bloody negociation" where he put himself in a situation where he couldn't negociate (and then  was doomed to fail).
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  Quote malizai_ Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 22-Oct-2006 at 14:06
"Iraq was supposed to be a quicky so was Afghanistan..."
 
That depends on who was making the assessment, not a view held by a 'clear' majority.
"Bush went to war ready to face a total war but soon had to face a "bloody negociation" where he put himself in a situation where he couldn't negociate (and then  was doomed to fail)."

Bush lost the initiative and was 'placed' in a position, to rethink. In war the option of negotiation is 'always' an option. One of the most disliked form of which is called surrender.


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  Quote Maharbbal Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 22-Oct-2006 at 14:48
No, surrender can't be regarded as a negociation in the full sense of the term as the options offered are die or stop fighting.

What I mean by negociation and what Mr Bush refuses to do with terrorist is: "let's listen to your claims and see if through negociation we can reach a point where both of us will consider their core preoccupations well preserved".


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  Quote malizai_ Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 22-Oct-2006 at 19:10
There is conditional surrender as well as unconditional surrender.
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  Quote hugoestr Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 22-Oct-2006 at 19:12
Maharbbal,

I really fail to see the difference between Savimbi and Bush. They both believed that violence could quickly solve problems in their favor. This strong belief clouded their minds from looking at the situation objectively.

Let's look into other mistakes of Bush. The brutality of Abu Ghraib was meant to scare Muslims from messing with the U.S. It did the oppossite: it filled them with indignation, and it has probably inspired many to join terrorist groups that the brutality was meant to scare them from joining.

Or look at the many failed attacks on cities meant to wipe out the insurgency. In military terms each of these battles achieve total victory, but their net effect is to further increase the insurgency.

Had Bush really considered the chaos, destruction, and death that taking Saddam out of power would bring, he would have not engaged in this war. At the moment that he did, he lost.
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  Quote Maharbbal Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23-Oct-2006 at 09:40
I think (and this is my personal opinion, nothing really to back it up), the main difference between Bush and Savimbi was the lenght they expected the fight to last. For the US president, it was in terms of days, weeks maybe, not month and certainly not years. For the UNITA leader on the countrary, even if he managed to fullfil all his aims (sizing key economic assets and the governmental machinery) it is unlikely that considering how long the conflict had been already, the fact that the UN or a neighbouring country can get involved at any moment and the fact that MPLA was backed up by the ethnicities of the NW of Angola, he ever though : one victory and my adverseries will fade away.
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  Quote Cryptic Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23-Oct-2006 at 22:44
Originally posted by hugoestr


Or look at the many failed attacks on cities meant to wipe out the insurgency. In military terms each of these battles achieve total victory, but their net effect is to further increase the insurgency.
 
I addition to the military mistaes, there were also a series of crucial errors in the administration of Iraq.  I doubt that the British and French colonialists would have made similar errors.
 
Bremer isisted on totally disbanning the Iraqi military because they were all "Baathists".  The result.... 300,000 angry young men with weapons are kicked out of their barracks and on to the streets. Ouch
 
Then Bremer "De Baathifizes" 50,000 mostly junior and mid level Baathist adminsitrators.   The result.... Iraqis with knowledge of the power grid, health care, educational,  tax collection and criminal justice systems are told to leave.  Many of these institutions then collapse. Ouch
 
These fired Iraqis are then replaced by an admiminstrative staff of young cilivialsn who ignore military advice,  are mostly totally unqualified for their positions  and were often too afraid t leave the "Green Zone" to see first hand the problems created by their actions.  Confused
 
     
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  Quote Maharbbal Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26-Oct-2006 at 20:37
Re-thining about it I realized that there was one very important detail that over all separates total wars from other: what is the importance of the family.

No, I'm not starting a Bush-style neoconservative speach saying that the (American) family is the most important thing a man has.

But consider a total war type WWII, it wasn't impossible to have two brothers in opposed camps, but in that case their relation would be equal to zero and they'd be ready to kill each other. Over all better have the two boys in the same camp.

On the countrary in a bloody negociation, it is the family's interest to have one child in each camp. One will be able to help the other and over all the family's more important than the cause.
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  Quote Qin Dynasty Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25-Nov-2006 at 21:59
A distinguished English former general came today to speak at my uni and here are a few things he said about the type of war he says will replace industrial total war and that he calls "war amongst the people".
 
4) No clear cut between civilian and military.

5) No clear cut between state and non-state.

check Mao's   people's warfare  or a much late work unlimited warfare by two young chinese officers

1) The aim is not a victory any more but a better position to negotiate.
2) The war may well become "timeless" as negociation is not as effective as victory.

3) The winning side is the side with the best narrative that manages to convice the medias and the world's opinion he won.
6) A kind of divorce between the strategic level (moral and ethic and PR) and the operational level (effectiveness ready to make alliance with unPC players to achieve their goals).
check SunTzu's  the art of war

 

Be honesty, i really dont think what he told is something new, I believe  we could easily find similar thoughts dated back to thousands years ago. The war has  never been a isolated social activity, it was linked with many other factors. It is not for me to speak of the future form of warfares, but i believe chances to resort to force would be lower due to the higher cost of the war and more emergences of non-violence alternatives. Single minds think war is just war, a competition of military muscles, and a quick way to solve problems, that's why they always get messed up when they throw themselves into a war, without a little thought about the local culture tradition and political system.



Edited by Qin Dynasty - 25-Nov-2006 at 22:07
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  Quote Maharbbal Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26-Nov-2006 at 03:45
Yes yes, the Chinese are always right before anyone else...

Also, we're talking about history, not pure theorization as Sun Ze did. What is stricking is the difference between say the Vietnam War (civilian involved but over all there was one centralized power: North Vietnam) and Irak/Afghanistan where virtually, there is no organized body in front of you, to an certain extend every street fighter in Bagdad represents himself, or at least the units fighting recognize only very loosely any hierarchical command.
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  Quote Qin Dynasty Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26-Nov-2006 at 04:17
and Irak/Afghanistan where virtually, there is no organized body in front of you, to an certain extend every street fighter in Bagdad represents himself, or at least the units fighting recognize only very loosely any hierarchical command.
 
 
do u really think they are just riots, mobs? they could be fine to cooperate with the government, but why, they risking their lives fighting ? For what?
 
Yes, their organizations might be loose in the form, but what matters? It is a stage that all self-organized entities would experience and, Obvious, in my humble opinion, if the Iraqi government and the US fail to solve the problems there in Iraq in a short time, soon they will see a more organized and centunized entity under their noses. Just be a little patient please, dude.
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  Quote Maharbbal Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26-Nov-2006 at 15:33
Dude?Disapprove

So far there have been no real entity emerging from the fight.

We're in a military section of the forum. I have almost no doubt that a factor (negotiation with the US most likely) may force the insurgent to create a common front, but so far it doesn't exist.

It seems to me that I'm saying 'they are decentralized' and you're answering: 'non they are self-organize, morron'.

Beside, 'dude', I guess that 3 years of war is more than enough to exhaust anybody's patience.
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  Quote pikeshot1600 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26-Nov-2006 at 17:04
This will piss everyone off:
 
(1)  Conflicts end when one side gives up.
 
(2)  Most future wars will be "insurgent/asymmetrical" in nature.
 
(3)  Insurgent wars that are "interventionist" are unwinnable.  (Iraq/Vietnam/Afghanistan)  Jihadis cannot be defeated conventionally.
 
(4)  Logic dictates that threats then must be totally eliminated by whatever means are available:  biological/ nuclear, before the opponent can seriously impact one's interests.
 
This goes to a sort of "Assyrian Imperative" where total destruction of all enemies, and any and all of their war making potential and support are eradicated.  Make sense?  Reasons?  Views?
 
Does one  seriously expect that technological societies over time will roll over and continue to accept suicide attacks from barefoot ragheads who don't shave?
 
Wink


Edited by pikeshot1600 - 27-Nov-2006 at 16:29
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  Quote Ponce de Leon Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26-Nov-2006 at 17:12
glad ta see ya back pikeshot
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  Quote pikeshot1600 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26-Nov-2006 at 17:45
Originally posted by Ponce de Leon

glad ta see ya back pikeshot
 
Others might not be so glad.  Smile
 
 
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  Quote Maharbbal Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28-Nov-2006 at 06:26
Amen Pikes' back into business!

This will piss everyone off:
 
(1)  Conflicts end when one side gives up.
 
Yes and if nobody is weak enough to be forced to give up...

(2)  Most future wars will be "insurgent/asymmetrical" in nature.
 
In a strinct sens most of wars has been insurgent/asymertrical. What may change is their size and prevalence. (but on the other hand I still bet there is going to be a major conflict between the US and China within the next 30 years)

(3)  Insurgent wars that are "interventionist" are unwinnable.  (Iraq/Vietnam/Afghanistan)  Jihadis cannot be defeated conventionally.
 
Well, technically they can, it is just very tricky, specially with such a bad start (many, colonial wars had been major victories for the colonists).

(4)  Logic dictates that threats then must be totally eliminated by whatever means are available:  biological/ nuclear, before the opponent can seriously impact one's interests.
 
Well I'm not convinced by that argument because it favours escalating violence. But want about torture, it is still a very efficient way to win a war, the problem is the public opinion doesn't accept it and as a result it is illegal. But I've just seen 'the life of colonel blimp' yesterday (a very very bad movie) where the argument is: lets bomb their towns even if we know first handed that it is barbaric because it is the only way to win.

This goes to a sort of "Assyrian Imperative" where total destruction of all enemies, and any and all of their war making potential and support are eradicated.  Make sense?  Reasons?  Views?
 
As argued before the 'total destruction' is maybe not a good option (too risky) but a litterally draconian approach is maybe inevitable. Dracon was that Athenian who said: petty crimes should be punished by death sentence because it is what they deserve, big crime ought to be punish by death sentence because there is nothing tougher than that.
And I fear on the long run the most draconian may end up by wining.

Does one  seriously expect that technological societies over time will roll over and continue to accept suicide attacks from barefoot ragheads who don't shave?

I guess not. I'd even go further, history seems to prove that, societies are ready to disregard their own (economic) interests to do what is "Right" (see Isabella admitting openly baning the jews and the mores was going to hurt the Spanish society but doing it nonetheless, the same for Louis XIV and the protestants and Elizabeth I and the catholics/protestants). My point is: even though firing the Muslim as a whole from Europe and the US, may nowadays seem like a creazy decision, it may well happen.
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