Possibility of war with China.

China opened up its economy in 1978.

So my point of view is that Since that time there has been a %0.01 chance for a war between China and The U.S

Let us remember what the American Secretary of State said in 1944:

''where goods can not cross borders,armies will.''

China has already made it clear that it wants to rise peacefully to the great power state.

As for the Taiwan Issue,The US. itself is against the independance of Taiwan.

When The Taiwanese president very mistakenly called for a refendum in order to demonstrate the Taiwanese poeople's view on the issue of independance,Bush made it clear that The U.S would never approve such a referandum.

Originally posted by Genghis We wouldn't need them to lend us money if we quit trading with them.  The reason the Chinese buy our bonds is so that we will have Chinese money with which to buy their goods with out the need of them to open up their markets to the US and thus they can maintain an artificial balance of payments.  With no trade they wouldn't do that.  Stopping them from buying treasury bonds would be dangerous for their economy as well, the yuan would increase in value and their goods would become more expensive when American goods are looking cheaper. It sounds like you would like a dollar that perpetually increases in value, that would be quite bad for this economy.  Many economists think a lowering of the value of the dollar would be good for the United States precisely because it would reduce our trade deficit. If we do go to war with China that would kind of make the issue of our debt with them moot, all those billions would never get paid back and the Chinese would be screwed. And of course they would retaliate to this "so-called blockade" but our "so-called navy" is more powerful than their "so-called navy" and their fleet would probably be sunk within a month of the arrival of significant naval forces in the region.

Genghis,

Long time no converse.

Allow me to add to your statement.  Keep in mind this is not a personal attack.  Just that the guys in the Asian Form is getting out of hand.  I just want to clarify that this is not a personal attack.

We do need China to lend us money.  The fact that they buy our tresuries, it lowers the interest rates (as I stated before).  The lowering of rates have inflated real estate prices.  Currently for the past four to five years, the economy has been running because of increase in real estate prices.  Take that away, you have a recession.  Think about it,  lower interest rates equates higher real estates prices, which propells more to renovate their homes (to take advantage of higher realestate prices) and also take advantage of lower rates (thanks to China), renovation involves hiring contractors (creates jobs and increases income).  Contractors need to buy lunch and gas (jobs and profits for restaurant & gas station owner)...etc... you get the picture.

Also, if the US decides not to honor China's holding of US treasuries, there will be such of flood of US treasuries into the market (flood meaning holders (including foreigners) selling our Treasuries) that our economy will enter a depression overnight.  The more worrying consequences is that Foreigners will be reluctant to buy US treasuries in the future.  Can you imagine the US economy without foreigners financing our lifestyle?  Americans are negative savers.  The reason why the US treasury market is the "gold standard" is that we have for a lack of a better term, we backup our IOU's.  No questions, no conditions.  Period.  Besides the Chinese will dump our Treasures before we can do anything about it anyway. 

Did you see when the Chinese let the Yuan float by 2% recently?  Before the float, the US ten year note rate was under 4%.  After the float, the rate skyrocketed to 4.4% in two weeks.   Now it is hovering around 4.5% to 4.7%.  Look what is starting to happen to the real estate market since my last post.  

Besides I think the Chinese are two steps ahead of the US.  They are already trying to drum up domestic demand and increase salaries of the middle and poor class.  They are pouring more money into the interior part of China.  That is why the ten year note's rate is increasing.  The Chinese are slowly unwinding their US treasuries position.  They are trying to create a consumer economy (like the US).  So when they do revalue or let it float, they will be in a position where they do not need to sell to the US.  In fact, they will buy from the S. Koreans, Japanese, and yes, even the US.  This will swing the balance of power (at least in the Far East decidely into China's camp).

Final note, lowering of the dollar will not bring jobs back to the US.  Any company (even a US company) will keep cost down.  Even if the dollar was hitting new lows, the manufacturing jobs will still reside overseas.  Most countries (China, India, Sri Lanka, etc....) salaries, rent, health benefits (there are none), capital cost are far cheaper than the US.  Basically, their fix cost are so cheap, that the US will have to revert back to the fifties in order to bring the jobs back "home".

By the way, Sri Lanka is the number one manufacturer of T-Shirts.  They just surpassed China about a couple of months ago.  That is evidence that even if China is not manufacturing it, somebody (outside of the US) will.  Today is Sri Lanka, next is Indonesia, Mongolia, India, Pakistan, Madageser, etc....

Jiangwei

People go to war if they're somehow better off if they win. In this case, no one is better if even if he does "win." Modern large scale warfare isn't like how it was 50 years ago. This is a global economic age and power and public interest aren't solely in the hands of political leaders.

how r they supposed to beat china if they cant even get a full grip of iraq.

Well i hope no one intrepeted my post as anti chinese, becuase i am not. I am argueing that the reasons to go to war are becoming stronger. And like eaglecap any percieved disrepect to the govn/PLA has nothing to do with the people or culture.

Imperator Invictus wrote:
" People go to war if they're somehow better off if they win. In this case, no one is better if even if he does "win.""

People dont always go to war on purely rational terms, infact most of the time including today it is emotions that drive war. If you statement is 100% correct then most wars in the last 50 years up until now wouldnt have occured, including Iraq today. They are fanned by fear, parionia and misconceptions, not just by some risk return anylsis.

As for gaining in a win, look at the Tawain situation:

What would the PRC gain in Tawain in return to such a high cost to invaded it? Rationally it could of just developed a free economic/trade zone and incorperate it economically (the real benefit)without needing to touch its independance. Yet it insists that it must incorperate the island and take control. So this is just as much  emotional issue as a rational one. The gains therefore are both strategic and pyschological.

The US gains no material benfit, but this is a line in the sand that demonstrates US strength and will. I cant see the US backing down on tawians defence. otherwise that whole defensive chain it has maintained since WW2 is completely compromised, and its pacific borders would be shared with a competitor.(threat). The gains therefore are both strategic and pyschological.

"This is a global economic age and power and public interest aren't solely in the hands of political leaders. "
It is nice to think economics with its cold dry logic will overcome such behavoiur, but i think at best, it complicates it and at worse can drive it.

Power is shifting like you said, but wars are being increasingly fought by poeple not just governments, so I cant see it as a stabalising factor. Lots of small, local and messy wars complimenting (albiet less frequent) largish set pieces seemes to be the trend.

Note:
Any war between the two would be a Asia-pacific war, It would be limited in geography and scope, that is no US troops would be seen in beijing nor could any large scale attack be done agianst US soil. It should be seen in the large picture context, as a redrawing of the line of influence between the two powers. Nor should forumers assume the US would be the aggressor.

Super Goat (^_^) quote:
" how r they supposed to beat china if they cant even get a full grip of iraq."

these are two different situations. The USA fights poorly when its faced with urban, guerilla style combat, not many large heavy forces do well here. Its hard fighting and technology can only help you so much, so the playing feild is alot more even. Talking to some aussie soldiers, generally US infantry are not that well trained either, that is compared to other western armies, but very well equiped. Infantry training would be more helpful in that situation.

What the US are good at, is large scale stuff.  Naval and air combat, thats where they are way ahead in size and technology. The PRC has studied this and im sure they have unconventional plans at getting at the US forces. But blue water combat, amphiboius assualts and air combat would be US dominated.

Originally posted by TheDiplomat As for the Taiwan Issue,The US. itself is against the independance of Taiwan. When The Taiwanese president very mistakenly called for a refendum in order to demonstrate the Taiwanese poeople's view on the issue of independance,Bush made it clear that The U.S would never approve such a referandum.

 Correct, TheDiplomat again sees through the intricacies of diplomacy.  If Taiwan succeeds in gaining independence, the United States will not be able to play the tug of war game in the Taiwan Strait.   Keeping Taiwan in a no unification and no independence limbo is the best way for the U.S. to keep her influence in the area. 

Same principle goes for Korea.  Korean unification is hampered for years because both the United States and China have a stake in the peninsula, and unification between North and South Korea would mean that U.S. and Chinese influence would diminish.  South Koreans are already disagreeing with the U.S. and Japan over the North Korean dilemma, preferring a more concilitary tone as opposed to the harsher U.S. alternative.

 

 the world should be aware how dangerous Chinese invaders  for the world, for humans today, how Chinese invaders  have expanded around the world, under the pretense how to created foundation for future expansion plans; in reality, the Chinese immigrants are  activists of the Chinese communist empire�s future expansion plan in all  countries. Therefore behind them there is the Chinese communist organization and shouldn't see them as normal immigrants.

 i say our army should go to war with china.

   If thats the case then its too late for war.

Forgotten, you cant be seroius or just dont have any idea about the chinese. The vast majority immigrate for the same reasons everyone else does; a better life, money and opportunity. Similar to others (Greeks and Jews for instance), they have been doing it for a very long time and are really successful at it. (which i think breeds resentment).

This has nothing to do with resource competition and the strategic realignment, which is the real source of tensions. And mind you this source of tension comes from both sides, not just one side.