What if Timur invaded China?

There is no doubt in my book that Timur would have swept aside Chinese resistance. The Empire of Tamerlane was the foremost power in the world at that time. The question is how long the empire would stay together after his death.

I do not know about that. The Chinese were notorious for seeing their culture above others. Every invader of China found themselves so impressed by Chinese culture that they adopted it as their own. So, if anything, I think that should the Timurid Empire last, it would have become more Chinese.

Ok, here is my take on this situation:

Timur missed the best time to attack China.  Three years prior to his campaign, China was in the process of civil war, with Zhu Di (the later Yongle Emperor) commanding his Northern armies South to take the Southern capital Nanjing, against his nephew, who was emperor at the time.  Zhu Di eventually won the civil war, but I can imagine the damage that Timur would be able to do to disrupt the Ming if he started three years in advance.

I have no doubt about the ferocity of Timur and believe that he is a good warrior.  I would place my bets on Timur if his army and the Ming army met somewhere in central Asia.

However, for an invasion of China, the situation would be different, due to logistical reasons.  The Ming Empire under Yongle Emperor was at its height and its armies had plenty of experience fighting against Mongols in the campaigns into Mongolia during the latter years of the 1300s.  After a century of Mongol rule, the Chinese population was extremely hostile against foreigners, especially Mongols and Persians.  Remember that it took the Mongols 40 years to take over the Song Dynasty in Southern China, and that the Song army was much. much weaker than the Ming army. 

Thus, my conclusion:

Phase 1

A. Timur would use his strengths to seriously damage the Ming Chinese garrisons and border troops in the west

B. Timur woud lay seige to a couple of cities in the western border of the Ming state, taking his time to rape and plunder

C. The Mongols would probably ally with Timur and lead an expedition south of the Gobi Desert

Phase 2

D. Emperor Yongle's strengths lay in the North (he was Prince of Yan and consolidated his power in the North), so he would not have too much trouble rallying his personal troops against the Mongols.  Yongle was a fierce commander who excelled in cavalry warfare.  He would either slaughter Mongols, scare them North, or sign a secret treaty with them.

E. Timur would rely on his blood and iron tactics to gobble up all the lands west of Tongguan Pass.  More rape and plunder follows.

F. The Chinese generals hold Tongguan Pass and Hanzhong, taking advantage of the mountaineous terrain.  Timur's cavalry would become useless at the chokepoints, and any further advance would result in falling into well laid traps.  Chinese reinforcements from the Southern and Eastern provinces would come to aid, barracading Tamerlane and preparing to launch a counter-offensive.

Phase 3.

G. Timur would realize that he had reached the extent of his campaign. He would be faced with three choices

1. Include the newly conquered western Chinese provinces into his empire, like the Mongols 

2.  Set up a vassal/puppet state under the nominial rule of a Chinese governor 

3. Rape, pillage, and plunder as much as he could and return to Samarkand with his loot.

If he chose 1, the populance would soon revolt due to widespread hatred of Mongol/Persian/Turkic rule, with the help of a strong, militarily versatile Ming Empire.

If he chose 2, the new vassal state would either declare independence or, most likely, be annexed back into the Ming.

The most logical choice would be 3.  Tamerlane would gain most by plundering while the Chinese troops are still in defensive stance and then withdrawing to Samarkand, becoming the richest man in the world and avoiding major losses to his troops.  The western borders of Ming China would be ravaged again on the way back.  It would take years for recovery and thus Tamerlane would secure his monopoly of the Silk Road.

Strategically, Tamerlane would win most if he attacked China, plundered, and swiftly returned to Samarkand before a counter-offensive of the Ming army could be organized.

That is, provided Tamerlane did not die on the way there (which he did)

 

Edited by poirot