China Versus USA (New World order)

I really don't think China will be able to come close to reaching parity with the US for at least 100 years.

China's economy is still only about one-third of the US economy, and I don't think their economy is as good as they say it is. Every province says they have at least 8% growth but even the government admits that the countryside (i.e. not major cities and not along the coast), which is where 70% of their people live, has not had much growth in the past 15 years, so obviously there's some lying. A lot probably internally by provincial governors who want to look good to people in Beijing.

Another thing I heard was that in general a 1% increase in GDP costs a 2% increase in net power production, according to Chinese figures they're able to do that for only 0.8% increase in power output per 1% GDP growth. That would make real GDP growth roughly 2-3% annually.

Also, I just recently started reading this book called "China's Military Faces the Future", and it really makes me think that in a war against the US China would lose terribly. I have much less respect for their armed forces after reading that book. They have people and that's it. They have a lousy air force, a terrible navy, and a very poor logistical capacity. Even one Chinese general in that book said that the Chinese army has "short arms, and weak feet". Their modernization program doesn't sound that scary either, they can't afford to go all out or else they can't invest in their economy anymore, and even though they do have a lot of new military combat hardware, their noncombat support services are really terrible and are strained to support what they do have. Also, in a war where they have to draft a lot of people they'd almost certainly not be able to produce enough modern weapons for all those new troops, they don't even produce a lot of modern weapons now, just import them. Their own defence industry is like 1980's Soviet and American level, and they would be worked to the limit if they have to equip millions of new troops.

I think a war with them would look a lot like the Eastern Front in World War I, with a power that has a very well equipped and high quality army (in that case Imperial Germany and in this case us) fighting an army that's very poorly equipped and led, but gigantic in numbers (in that case Czarist Russia and in this case the PRC). Only the quantity vs. quality assymetry would be even more pronounced.

They could win by combining air power and using China's massive population as a weakness to exploit.  Bomb certain areas regarding the transportation of food and sanitation and disease will rip through that populace society like Jack the Ripper through a London hooker.

Well yes, Russia was slowing exhausting Germany but I think Germany was very rapidly exhausting Russia, so in the stamina war Germany won and I think America could too.

I think there would be considerable unrest.  If America occupies the Yangtze River valley which produces most of their food, and a strong air campaign is launched against dams and powerplants, China will have a hard time feeding their massive population and providing basic living necessities.

The analogy is kind of limited by the fact that power projection capabilities now would allow the United States to attack and disrupt (I'm not going to say devastate because I don't want to make it seem like I think air power alone would win the war) the Chinese government and military with considerable strategic depth.

As for the occupation, I think it would require about 15 million troops if you use the traditional ratio of 1 soldier for every 80 occupied persons.  That is a big problem, but I don't think we should try to occupy them after we're done.  We should break them apart into a bunch of little Chinese states and hopefully that'll keep them "occupied".

You bring up some very good points Herodotus, and I understand your concerns.  I agree, we cannot afford a long occupation, the only way out of that that I see is to Balkanize China and create a lot of small competing warlords, or do to China what the USSR did to Eastern Europe, or we could allow chaos to rain in China and try to keep the mess from hitting us.  I prefer the Balkanization or USSR-style option.

This very reason is also one of the reasons I think India has to be on board and provide manpower.

Sorry if I can't provide more concrete answers, I understand your fear and I have ways I think we could deal with them, but there's no clear cut answer I can give you.

Ha Ha, USA vs China in BF2

Click it http://www.eaplay.com/australia/movies/?addmovie=1406

I'd see it starting more so from a situation similar to one like that between the US and Japan before Pearl Harbor.  And as it was then, I think it would be the result of a newly-powerful nation being caught up in the arrogance of it's new found wealth and military power that it would try to take on the economic and military equivalent of Godzilla.

Originally posted by hugoestr Thanks Genghis for your excellent military analysis. You could easily work for the Pentagon or a think tank doing this kind of work. I want to discuss some other strategically problems that could arise with a war against China.

Thank you for your praise, I really appreciate that.  I mean it, thanks,

That's very true, they could dump our currency, but I don't know how bad that would be for us as I'm not an economics expert.  I suppose we could raise interest rates to curb the resulting inflation, or slow down money growth.  The Chinese might also be reluctant to throw away that money they'd probably want to buy weapons with.  I'll look into this a little more.  Thanks for bringing it up

I still think we would have an easier time finding alternative suppliers than they would alternative markets, not to say it wouldn't be a jolt to the economy.  I bet India and Southeast Asia could pick up some of the slack, as well as rationing at home if its really needed.  I'm also not so certain that technological goods are what they export the most of, I was under the impression it was still primarily textiles and other things made with cheap, unskilled labor that could be moved to other nations. 

Well, hopefully deterrence will work in this case (let's hope to God).  I also think that missile defense systems do have potential, tests even in the seventies of things like the Spartan and Sprint missile were able to intercept ICBM's.  Laser and particle beam weapons also offer potential if they are developed enough.  I really thing a missile defense system could work based on literature I've read.

I think our goals would have to the ending of the threat of Chinese military aggression in Asia and the deposition of the Communist government.  Installing a new democracy or "unconditional surrender" should be avoided because those are far more widereaching.  War would also not necessarily devastate us if we gear up for it like in World Wars I and II by raising taxes, conscription, and planning the economy for war.  However, trying to fight the war on a peacetime footing however would stretch us like we are now and as we were in Vietnam.

I know that what you're talking about with the British currency manipulation. I read about it for a project about the Suez Crisis in school this year.  The world started trading in British pounds in a rapid manner and we refused to give them a loan to help them weather it, indeed, that was what made them stop the Suez Invasion in my opinion, regardless of all else.

The only thing I would wonder is if the Chinese possess a large enough share of our currency to do that to any worthwhile extent, after all, there are a lot of greenbacks out there.  When we did our trick on the British, America had an incredibly high share of the world GDP due to the destruction of the rest of the industrialized world and the fact that investors all over the world were dumping pounds.  I also hear a lot of trade in China has to be done in Yuan, and I'm not sure if their positive balance of payments necessarily means they have a lot of American dollars.  I'd have to check into that more.

As for the goods, I think the Chinese are often a lot more reliant on us buying their goods than we are on them selling them to us.  If we stop buying Chinese textiles, we can find alternate sources even if it means a jump in prices, they'll have trouble finding new markets, especially with an American blockade of China.  A lot of those items like ashtrays and Barbies are also non-strategic, if we relied on stuff from them like computers and aircraft, we'd be screwed but we can make that ourselves.  Places like Korea and Singapore would also probably jump at the oppurtunity to sell us electrical components when the Chinese won't, and a domestic production increase by people like Hewlett Packard could hopefully make up the loss of that supplier.  I'm not saying the loss of Chinese trade wouldn't be bad, but I doubt it would be catastrophic or insurmountable.  I also think it'd be a lot worse for China, especially because they have to import a lot of military hardware which would dry up during a war.