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Chiang Kai-shek had one last shot in 1968

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  Quote heyamigos Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: Chiang Kai-shek had one last shot in 1968
    Posted: 04-Sep-2012 at 03:07
He was attempting a full scale naval invasion of China during the height of Mao's horrific Cultural Revolution when millions were dying of famine, executions, general chaos in society.  The Nationalists were prepared to land a few naval ships and aircraft to southern China, when the USA immediately phoned Chiang to stop/abort his planes or the US warship will intercede and shoot them (to avoid a war with communist China).  At the time, the US had its own Vietnam War and Cuban missile crisis.
 
Chiang was devastated by this and couple years later when the United Nations voted to allow communist China to take over the spot held by Chiang's regime at the UN table for over 2 decades, he knew his days and dream of retaking the mainland was over.  He died in 1975.
 
Both Chiang Kai-shek and Dr. Sun Yat-sen were not too trusting of Americans.  Dr. Sun, although spending time as a youth in America, saw how they (Americans), along with Europeans sided with northern warlords to keep China weak in the 1920s, so he had no choice but to borrow Soviet help (where the condition was to allow a Chinese communist party to coexist with the KMT).  Chiang, throughout WWII was always skeptical of American advice and help and continue to have this skepticism when he lost the civil war and banished to Taiwan.
 
Had the Americans in 1968 just allowed him to go ahead with the military endeavor, who knows?  Perhaps millions of long-suffered Chinese masses would immediately aid his army to retake the mainland?  At that time, they certainly were ready based on many of the letters sent back and forth between relatives in Hong Kong and mainland. 
 
A chance lost.  But, had Chiang lived to see today's China developing, he would be probably smiling.  This is the type of China that he and Dr. Sun Yat-sen had envisioned under the 3 People's Principles theory.  Growing economic livelihood along with strong people's nationalism.
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  Quote Nick1986 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04-Sep-2012 at 21:12
The Sino-Soviet split happened around this time. Perhaps the Americans hoped to form an anti-Russian alliance with China?
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  Quote Don Quixote Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05-Sep-2012 at 06:51
This is what I think too. Geopolitics.
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  Quote Nick1986 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08-Sep-2012 at 19:25
How successful would Chiang's invasion have been? The Americans tried to do the same thing in Cuba but were repulsed by the Communists
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  Quote heyamigos Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 15-Sep-2012 at 06:27
Nick,
 
Chiang, would at least have sizeable support amongst the Chinese in the southern regions.  That was the original heartland of the KMT and people during that time in China (1960s) went through immense pain, suffering and starvation (similar to Stalin's reign of terror in Soviet Union).  They would have welcomed back the old generalissimo despite his regime's past corruptions.  A corrupt regime was more favored over a regime of insanity and terror.  This brainwashing forced even today's generations to dare not speak  out against Mao's excesses.
 
 
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  Quote longbaby Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24-Oct-2012 at 07:05
Retaking the China mainland was Chiang's lifelong dream, but I do doubt whether he could be successful even in the height of Cultural Revolution. Without the aid of the US Chiang's army was largely dwarfed by Mao's army. If the Chinese People Liberation army had had a navy, Communists would have taken Taiwan in 1949.
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  Quote BoPoMoFo Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29-Oct-2012 at 02:14
But how would PLA be mobilized?  Who would lead them?  Many of its famous generals were tortured and killed during Cultural Revolution.  And no doubt, the everybody-against-everybody type of division happened at least to some extent within the military too.  We are not talking about 1949, when KMT had its back on the wall and no room to breathe.  We are talking about 1968 when KMT had set a robust foundation for Taiwan, had a good supply of "patriotic" and well-doctrined young men, and veterans who could not wait to defeat CCP to see their mother, wife, children again.
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  Quote longbaby Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29-Oct-2012 at 04:10
Originally posted by BoPoMoFo



But how would PLA be mobilized?  Who would lead them?  Many of its famous generals were tortured and killed during Cultural Revolution.  And no doubt, the everybody-against-everybody type of division happened at least to some extent within the military too.  We are not talking about 1949, when KMT had its back on the wall and no room to breathe.  We are talking about 1968 when KMT had set a robust foundation for Taiwan, had a good supply of "patriotic" and well-doctrined young men, and veterans who could not wait to defeat CCP to see their mother, wife, children again.


In 1968, the situation within the CCP military was not so serious as in other sectors, where there were much chaos and commotion. It's true that many marshals and generals had been overthrown and Lin Biao and his associates were practically in charge of the military. But Mao was still prepared for the possible attack from the outside. He exiled many generals to the provinces instead of executing them in case Beijing would be the target. Military training was still going on and they even developed atom bomb and H-bomb then. Many air-raid shelters were built all over China. As I know, they did have an emergency plan even if the war happened.

In fact, the inside struggle never stopped with the CCP. In Jingang Mountains, many Red Army commanders were wrongly executed. In Yanan, during the Rectification Movemet, some military leaders were overthrown and prosecuted. But Mao and his comrades stll seized the power in the end.

Take a look at what happened to Stalin and USSR in WW2. During the Great Purge before the war, 3 of 5 marshals and half the generals were executed secretly. But the Red Army still defeated Hitler and Nazi.

As to KMT, I don't think they owned a morale as you said. The defeat in 1945-1949, when they were much better equipped than Mao's army, depressed most KMT generals very much. In 1968, when the CCP military had made a great improvment in equipments, Chiang couldn't expect many chances of succeeding.
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  Quote BoPoMoFo Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29-Oct-2012 at 04:30
Originally posted by longbaby

Originally posted by BoPoMoFo



But how would PLA be mobilized?  Who would lead them?  Many of its famous generals were tortured and killed during Cultural Revolution.  And no doubt, the everybody-against-everybody type of division happened at least to some extent within the military too.  We are not talking about 1949, when KMT had its back on the wall and no room to breathe.  We are talking about 1968 when KMT had set a robust foundation for Taiwan, had a good supply of "patriotic" and well-doctrined young men, and veterans who could not wait to defeat CCP to see their mother, wife, children again.


In 1968, the situation within the CCP military was not so serious as in other sectors, where there were much chaos and commotion. It's true that many marshals and generals had been overthrown and Lin Biao and his associates were practically in charge of the military. But Mao was still prepared for the possible attack from the outside. He exiled many generals to the provinces instead of executing them in case Beijing would be the target. Military training was still going on and they even developed atom bomb and H-bomb then. Many air-raid shelters were built all over China. As I know, they did have an emergency plan even if the war happened.

In fact, the inside struggle never stopped with the CCP. In Jingang Mountains, many Red Army commanders were wrongly executed. In Yanan, during the Rectification Movemet, some military leaders were overthrown and prosecuted. But Mao and his comrades stll seized the power in the end.

Take a look at what happened to Stalin and USSR in WW2. During the Great Purge before the war, 3 of 5 marshals and half the generals were executed secretly. But the Red Army still defeated Hitler and Nazi.

As to KMT, I don't think they owned a morale as you said. The defeat in 1945-1949, when they were much better equipped than Mao's army, depressed most KMT generals very much. In 1968, when the CCP military had made a great improvment in equipments, Chiang couldn't expect many chances of succeeding.
 
I agree with many points you made, but I'd like to add a few.  KMT was a completely different animal in 1968 as opposed to that in 1949.  Chiang was never a true dictator in Mainland as CCP propaganda proclaimed.  He could not even pick his own VP, much the military reform he desired.  As a result, he never had the full command of the military(which explained why he was so eager to micro-manage to the smallest detail in the frontline - because he was insecure.)  But in Taiwan, he was as much worshipped as Mao was in Mainland.  While in Mainland, the voices were many and divided, but in Taiwan, under CKS, there was only one, and that was to recover the Mainland.
 
Also, as RollingWave pointed out in his post, CCP did not have inferior weapons (short of air planes and ships).  I am not going to regurgitate his post so you might be interested to look it up.
 
Third, while CCP had atomic weapons, they didn't have the delivery vehicle yet.  So, if they had to use them, it would have been on Mainland soil itself, which would have made CCP the only government to nuke its own country and people.  Given how propaganda savy CCP was, no way they would have used them.
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  Quote longbaby Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29-Oct-2012 at 05:20
Originally posted by BoPoMoFo


Third, while CCP had atomic weapons, they didn't have the delivery vehicle yet.  So, if they had to use them, it would have been on Mainland soil itself, which would have made CCP the only government to nuke its own country and people.  Given how propaganda savy CCP was, no way they would have used them.


I am afraid you underestimated the ambition of some politicians. I guess no matter how propaganda savy CCP was, they would for sure use their #1 weapon at the last minute even at the cost of.....

Edited by longbaby - 29-Oct-2012 at 05:26
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  Quote Nick1986 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29-Oct-2012 at 09:02
Numbers would ultimately overwhelm superior technology and training. In the final years of the war it was more difficult for the Nazis to replace troops and equipment lost to the Russians
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  Quote BoPoMoFo Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29-Oct-2012 at 09:56
Originally posted by longbaby

Originally posted by BoPoMoFo


Third, while CCP had atomic weapons, they didn't have the delivery vehicle yet.  So, if they had to use them, it would have been on Mainland soil itself, which would have made CCP the only government to nuke its own country and people.  Given how propaganda savy CCP was, no way they would have used them.


I am afraid you underestimated the ambition of some politicians. I guess no matter how propaganda savy CCP was, they would for sure use their #1 weapon at the last minute even at the cost of.....
 
There are two scenarios I can think of:
 
1) No one is going to finish anyone up, and a peace treaty will be made with concession on both sides. (And spinmasters on each side would have a field day)
 
2) US is not going to sit by while CCP just nuke its people and US's ally.  I think that was the fundamental reason why US shot down Chiang's plan - because they did not want to get dragged in, which they would have otherwise.
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  Quote longbaby Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 30-Oct-2012 at 07:23
Originally posted by Nick1986

The Sino-Soviet split happened around this time. Perhaps the Americans hoped to form an anti-Russian alliance with China?



I think you got it. America wanted to ally with China then to contain USSR, so couldn't approve of Chiang's plan. America always takes its interests in first place, far prior to the interests of his Pacific allies, like Japan and Taiwan.

Edited by longbaby - 30-Oct-2012 at 19:02
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  Quote BoPoMoFo Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 30-Oct-2012 at 19:34
Originally posted by longbaby

Originally posted by Nick1986

The Sino-Soviet split happened around this time. Perhaps the Americans hoped to form an anti-Russian alliance with China?



I think you got it. America wanted to ally with China then to contain USSR, so couldn't approve of Chiang's plan. America always takes its interests in first place, far prior to the interests of his Pacific allies, like Japan and Taiwan.
 
Nixon was uncharacteristically naive toward China.  He was euphoric about his visits, thinking it's a game changer, but in fact, he made alot of concessions without PRC making any.
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  Quote lirelou Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 30-Oct-2012 at 22:36
Longbaby, regarding this:  "America always takes its interests in first place, far prior to the interests of his Pacific allies, like Japan and Taiwan."

Yes, isn't that the sane thing to do? What country's government places the interests of outsiders over its own?

Bopomofo, In re your:  "Nixon was uncharacteristically naive toward China.  He was euphoric about his visits, thinking it's a game changer,"

Well, concerning Vietnam, it very well could have been a game changer, had it not been derailed by Watergate. Without Watergate, Nixon could have kept up the bombing on Hanoi to the point that they agreed to stay out of the South. After all, what had largely made Vietnam a limited war was the fear that it would trigger Chinese intervention.


Edited by lirelou - 30-Oct-2012 at 22:37
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  Quote BoPoMoFo Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 31-Oct-2012 at 20:10
But CCP didn't even give Nixon any hint of not intervening while Nixon promised them a boatload.
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  Quote lirelou Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 01-Nov-2012 at 12:10
BoPoMoFo, In re your: "But CCP didn't even give Nixon any hint of not intervening "

Yes, but as your own original post suggests, what counted was not what the Chinese specifically agreed to, but what Nixon believed they had agreed to, and equally important, what they would put up with from the United States to maintain the relationship.  

my own opinion is that China viewed Vietnam not as an Ally, as the Americans liked to frame it, but as a client. A client whom they would support when it suited their interests, and whose pleas they would ignore when it suited their interests. After all, in 1969 they showed themselves capable of launching military expeditions against this 'Ally' when they deemed that in their interest.

It's my understanding that Nixon had a pretty good reputation as a poker player when he was in the Navy, and the essence of poker is an ability to assess risks, be willing to take risks, and weigh just how far you can go with those in the game.


Edited by lirelou - 01-Nov-2012 at 12:14
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  Quote BoPoMoFo Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 01-Nov-2012 at 20:52
One sign of Nixon's naivette was his assessment of Mao Tse-Tung and Chou En-Lai.  He rated them as two of the three greatest statesmen alive.  (Perhaps he's hinting he himself to be the third?)
 
Even today, Mao and Chou's busts are displayed in the Nixon Presidential Library.
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  Quote longbaby Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 01-Nov-2012 at 21:56
Yes, compared with Mao and Chou, Nixon was naive. Mao was a cunning politician while Nixon seemed a little slow in playing internationally.
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  Quote heyamigos Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13-Nov-2012 at 05:36
Nothing beats the 'people's will and power.'  I watched how all these Arab nations rolled back and wiped out all their dictators one by one not because of military planning and weaponry, but by the people no longer wanting the current political est. and stubbornly and slowly retaking their societies street by street, city by city, region by region.  In China in 1960s, height of Cultural Revolution madness, it could have been done.  Armies in Taiwan could have combined with remnant KMT forces hiding out at the Burma/Yunnan border to plan this counter-attack.  It never happened.  America was already planning to recognize and come to peace with Mao at that time (my opinion)
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