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Stalingrad or North Africa?

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  Quote Peteratwar Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: Stalingrad or North Africa?
    Posted: 11-May-2009 at 16:30
Given the space involved (BTW what is happening to Moscow and Leningrad) the huge resources required by the Germans to hold the territory given also the nature of the terrain, they wouldn't have much left for major operations.
 
Nothing is inevitable in warfare
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  Quote Al Jassas Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11-May-2009 at 16:36
Hello to you all
 
I agree with Sarmat, Hitler never intended to rule all of Russia or indeed go beyond the Urals. Hitler has always maintained that the goal was to wage war untill the collapse of the Soviet regime and he never planned for the next plan if his original failed because of ideological reasons.
 
Also, the chance of success of the Germans if they won the battle of NA is higher than those if they won in Stalingrad. I mean even if they won in Stalingrad they still had a gigantic mission of keeping the Russian forces (some 1.5-2 million soldiers excellently equipped and had many veterans) located north and east of the city at bey while conquering the Caucasus which is equally difficult. But a victory in NA would mean popular uprisings in both Egypt and Iraq and maybe even in Russia. Egypt alone had some 100k men and though poorly equipped they can use the lef overs from the Brits. The brits would find it impossible to relief the middle east.
 
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  Quote Sarmat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11-May-2009 at 16:49
Originally posted by Peteratwar

Given the space involved (BTW what is happening to Moscow and Leningrad) the huge resources required by the Germans to hold the territory given also the nature of the terrain, they wouldn't have much left for major operations.
 
Nothing is inevitable in warfare
 
I don't agree at all. Germans had been increasing the number of their troops constantly each year from 1939 to 1945. Moreover, despite that they maintained a massive army in the East in 1944, they were able to hold another front in the West from 1944 for almost a year. The German war effort in 1943-1945 was much harder that would have been required  to hold weakened Russian forces after the hypothetical German success in Caucasus.
 
Also, given the information above it wouldn't be hard for Germans to send another army to Iran and Iraq (I mean if they were able to open another fron in the West in 1944 while expeditionary force in the Middle East would require much less men).
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  Quote Sarmat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11-May-2009 at 16:52
Originally posted by Al Jassas

 
Also, the chance of success of the Germans if they won the battle of NA is higher than those if they won in Stalingrad. I mean even if they won in Stalingrad they still had a gigantic mission of keeping the Russian forces (some 1.5-2 million soldiers excellently equipped and had many veterans) located north and east of the city at bey while conquering the Caucasus which is equally difficult. But a victory in NA would mean popular uprisings in both Egypt and Iraq and maybe even in Russia. Egypt alone had some 100k men and though poorly equipped they can use the lef overs from the Brits. The brits would find it impossible to relief the middle east.
 
Al-Jassas
 
When I was writing about those hypothetical scenarios I meant German victory both in Caucasus and Stalingrad. Only victory in Caucasus would open the gates to the Middle East and force Turkey to ally with Germans.
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  Quote pikeshot1600 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11-May-2009 at 19:14
Cryptic,
 
If the Wehrmacht was so good, why is it that the war was lost so disastrously?
 
Other than a veneer of tactical excellence, the German army was still mired in the mentality of Frederick the Great.  As long as the campaign could be short, they were comfortable, and could have expectations.
 
Poland and France were roughly month long campaigns.  Russia opened well enough, but after a few months, the army reached the extent of it's capabilities, and after Moscow, it had to find other objectives.  The Caucasus petered out in 1942, no lasting headway being sustained, and Herr Hitler fed the Wehrmacht into the Don-Volga meat grinder until after Stalingrad.  The army high command was already too weak to get rid of him after the debacles of 1943 - North Africa, Italy, Stalingrad, Kursk. 
 
The Wehrmacht lost about 2,000,000 men in these campaigns.  I consider that disastrous.  Neither the Imperial army nor the Wehrmacht could be successful in the wars they attempted.  The last gasp of Frederick's Prussian "way of war" was in 1870.
 
EDIT:  BTW, that thing about a negotiated peace would have resulted in World War III.  The most obvious objective of the war was the destruction of German ability to sustain war on any level.
 
 


Edited by pikeshot1600 - 11-May-2009 at 19:35
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  Quote Sarmat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11-May-2009 at 19:47
Disatrous?
 
Many would consider Wermacht achievements during WWII just miraculous by themselves considering the casualties of its enemies and the size of the occupied territories.
 
I actually think it's quite surprising that the Nazi Germany was able to conduct such a gigantic war for such a long time considering the strength of its opponents.
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  Quote pikeshot1600 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11-May-2009 at 19:59
As another example of the inability of Germany to sustain strategic operations, as early as the late 1870s, von Moltke was stressed over the manpower issues facing the German army.  At that time, the deployable troops amounted to 300,000 in the west against approximately 500,000 French, and 360,000 in the east against as many as 800,000 Russians.  Germany was as desperate for the Dual Alliance as was Austria in 1879.
 
Von Schlieffen after 1892 (formal Franco-Russian alliance), basically told the Austrians they were on their own in the east.  Only defensive operations in East Prussia were possible.
 
Of course these things ebbed and flowed, but the inability of the Germans to envelop the French army in 1914 indicated that, for all their tactical excellence, Germany always lacked the resources to wage war on the scale to which she aspired.  When the war could not be ended quickly, the most likely outcome was that Germany would lose.
 
Actually, even Frederick the Great came to understand that as the Seven Years War (for all the battles won) nearly cost him the kingdom.  
 
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  Quote pikeshot1600 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11-May-2009 at 20:03
Originally posted by Sarmat

Disatrous?
 
Many would consider Wermacht achievements during WWII just miraculous by themselves considering the casualties of its enemies and the size of the occupied territories.
 
I actually think it's quite surprising that the Nazi Germany was able to conduct such a gigantic war for such a long time considering the strength of its opponents.
 
The end result was that they lost disastrously.
 
 
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  Quote Sarmat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11-May-2009 at 20:15
But they lost not because Wermacht performed poorly, but because strategically speaking Germany couldn't take the combined assault of the USSR, USA and Britain.
 
If Wermach performed poorly the war would be lost already in 1939.
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  Quote Cryptic Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11-May-2009 at 21:24
Originally posted by pikeshot1600

 
If the Wehrmacht was so good, why is it that the war was lost so disastrously?
Because though they were tall, they were not 10 feet tall. Sarmat is right, the Wermacht was worn down strategically. As a whole, they were not beaten at the tactical level and were rarely beaten at the operational level.   
 
Even after 1943, when the strategic situation made victory impossible, they proved very tough, though not impossible, to beat at the operational and tactical level. Beating them often took far more than the customary 3-1 advantage necessarry to overcome a defender.  This was shown at Sicily, Anzio, Italy as a whole, Normandy, "The Bulge", Kharkov, Hungary, Arnhem Area, East Prussia etc.    
Originally posted by pikeshot1600

BTW, that thing about a negotiated peace would have resulted in World War III.  The most obvious objective of the war was the destruction of German ability to sustain war on any level. 
WWIII was a definite possibility. Political / military objectives, however, can change.  This is especially so when the direct cost is measured in lives and is payable immediately. My guess is that after 970,000 deaths in WWI, Britain was not going to ignore a negotiated peace offer and pay the immediate cost in lives that a hasty, 1943 D-Day campaign would have cost. 
 
Though the U.S. was willing to pay the immediate cost, the U.S. was also very careful about casualties despite their huge population base. My guess is that no U.S. politician (except George BushConfused) was going ignore a lack of British enthusiasm, ignore a realistic peace offer and try to force a campaign in France against a still dangerous enemy.


Edited by Cryptic - 11-May-2009 at 21:57
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  Quote pikeshot1600 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11-May-2009 at 23:30
Cryptic,
 
I am not sure where you are getting a "lack of British enthusiasm."  IF there ever was such a thing, why would it not have surfaced early?  In 1940, Britain was fighting alone; the possibility of German invasion loomed in the imagination, and, according to some sources, Germany was putting out peace feelers - all of which were rejected.
 
Some years before 1945, and the shaping of postwar Europe, the understanding was generally held that Germany had to be decisively defeated; that any negotiated settlement was another 1919 "armistice for 20 years."  In my estimation, that feeling was shared not only by the British, but also by Roosevelt and by his advisors such as Nicholas Spykman and Hans Morgenthau.  The Russians needed no convincing.  Neither, for that matter, did the French.
 
Prior generations were more willing to bear the direct cost than a current generation that finds unacceptable the loss of one, professional, military man.
 
    
 
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  Quote Cryptic Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12-May-2009 at 15:39
Originally posted by pikeshot1600

I am not sure where you are getting a "lack of British enthusiasm."  IF there ever was such a thing, why would it not have surfaced early?  In 1940, Britain was fighting alone; the possibility of German invasion loomed in the imagination, and, according to some sources, Germany was putting out peace feelers - all of which were rejected.
That is because Britain was fighting for her national survival. This is a huge motivating factor. The German peace feelers all ended Germany in control of Europe (unacceptable) and with German domination of Great Britain (unacceptable). 
 
No move forward to Operation Torch, Germany failed to deliver the knock out blow, U.S. troops are in Europe, Germany will lose the war. The war is no longer about the national survival of great Britain, but rather to what extent Germany will be beaten. The following areas demonstrate Britains unenthusiasm for direct confrontations, even when the need was arguably legitimate.  They were willing to crush Germany, but only if  the Soviets did most of the fighting and they could pick and choose easy campaigns. This was in Britain's best interest after WWI losses.
  
-Strategic: Though the Germans had to be fought in France, Britan proposes Italy (accepted), Yugoslavia and Norway (rejected) as possible alternatives
Operational :  Arctic convoys (halted after 250 deaths), Operation Goodwind, Holland 1944 / 45 (U.K resists U.S pressure to free ports), El Alamian (Rommel was eventually directly confronted, but final vicory deliberatly delayed) 
 
There seems to have been an unwritten social contract after 970,000 WWI deaths. Something like...
 
"No Sommes, Verduns, Stalingrads, Cherkasskey Pockets, Sebastpols etc. The next war will be fought expeditionary style with very limited direct confrontations. No mass use of conscript divisions. Instead, high casualty combat positions will be all volunteers or if needed, select conscripts. If our national survival is no longer at stake, this level of comitment must be sufficient."     
 
 


Edited by Cryptic - 12-May-2009 at 17:06
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  Quote Sarmat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12-May-2009 at 16:46
Indeed, British showed much more "enthusiasm" during WWI.
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  Quote pikeshot1600 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12-May-2009 at 23:19
Cryptic,
 
Certainly, the carnage of WW I had it's effect.  However, I do not see the British war effort, 1939-45 as characterized by any lack of enthusiasm.  Strategically, the British and Commonwealth forces strove to operate around the periphery of German/Italian continental position.  This was partly out of a perceived need to avoid the "Sommes and Verduns," etc.  Partly it was because there was no continental brideghead as there had been in France in the first war.  Everything had to be done at a distance.
 
The British approach was at odds with the US approach and led to all sorts of strategic-military politics that had to be smoothed over before Overlord was decided upon.  Churchill still envisioned a "soft underbelly" through south Europe (Italy and the Balkans), but the US (Roosevelt and G. Marshall) saw a direct assault on the continent as the best way to confront Germany and to drive into central europe before the USSR got too far west.  Once the plan was put in motion, the British and Canadians were ready to go.
 
If there was any "lack of enthusiasm," it may have been shown by the French in 1940.  That is not an indictment.  The French in the first war lost twice the troops Britain and the Commonwealth did, and most of them were Frenchmen.
 
 
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  Quote Sarmat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13-May-2009 at 06:08
Originally posted by pikeshot1600

Cryptic,
 
Certainly, the carnage of WW I had it's effect.  However, I do not see the British war effort, 1939-45 as characterized by any lack of enthusiasm.  Strategically, the British and Commonwealth forces strove to operate around the periphery of German/Italian continental position.  This was partly out of a perceived need to avoid the "Sommes and Verduns," etc.  Partly it was because there was no continental brideghead as there had been in France in the first war.  Everything had to be done at a distance.
 
 
No it didn't "have to be done."
 
British, of course, were able at least to try to establish such bridge heads should they willing too. However, that would mean heavy casualties and direct confrontation with effective Wermacht land forces. So, British selected a much safer strategy of "defence" of the main islands without involvement in operation which could be to costly in terms of resources and first of all human casualties.
 
You can call that "lack of enthusiasm," but it's also apparent that British acted in their best interests.
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  Quote Cryptic Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13-May-2009 at 15:38
Originally posted by Sarmat

You can call that "lack of enthusiasm," but it's also apparent that British acted in their best interests.
I agree completely.
 
Pikeshot,
 
Please note that the totality of the clear  pattern of avoiding direct confrontation at the strategic and operational levels, even when the need legitimate, demonstrates the British approach to WWII that Sarmat and I are referring to.  
 
Historically, the British got to "have their cake and eat it too".  Their German enemy was totally beaten and this was done with Britain being able to maintain an "expeditionary only" strategy. Which as Sarmat mentions, was in their best interest for several reasons.
 


Edited by Cryptic - 13-May-2009 at 15:42
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  Quote pikeshot1600 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14-May-2009 at 00:28
Of course Britain acted in her own interests.  I am not sure I understand the point you guys are making about a "lack of enthusiasm."  What were they supposed to do, invade France on their own because it looked enthusiastic? 
 
They fought for a year and a half by themselves, except for the Dominions.  There was no continental base from which to operate, hence Norway, Crete, the Middle East.  The idea that Britain could just establish a brideghead if they wanted to makes no sense at all. 
 
The geographic positon taken by the Axis had been predicated on denying an enemy access on the continent at any point where Germany could be attacked.  The entire Atlantic coastline of France occupied; no neutrality for the Netherlands, none for Denmark or Norway; no access to the Baltic; and (not intended, but still accomplished) no possibility for Britain to use the Balkans as a base after spring, 1941.
 
I would argue that from a strategic point of view, the peripheral, indirect approach made sense because it preserved manpower by minimizing casualties (anything wrong with that?), and after Barbarossa it stretched German resources to limits that were less and less supportable. 
 
By enthusiasm, if you mean an early frontal assault on Europe, Britain was too smart for that.  The resources were not available, nor was it necessary until the United States was ready to support it.  Churchill could have his underbelly ideas, but the route to Berlin was across the north European plain, and Britain and Canada did their part enthusiastically from spring, 1944.
 
         
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  Quote Sarmat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14-May-2009 at 01:56
You forgot that that most of the German troops including the most effective units were always on the Eastern Front, starting from 1941.
 
Britain was complitely able to open a limited theater in Europe should it wanted t. But, of course, that would require a much more bigger effort and concentration and, most importantly, casualties than largely insignificant operations in North Africa.
 
So, in terms of capabilities, of course, Britain could do that, but it didn't see the reason why it should, nor was it willing to suffer extra casualties.
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  Quote Peteratwar Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14-May-2009 at 09:12

No Britain did not have the resources to open a SUCCESSFUL limited theatre in Europe, not without abandoning everything else. Where do you suggest they went ? Do you suggest they totally pulled out of North Africa and the Far East ? In any event a limited theatre is next to useless. What is it there for ? What does it achieve ?

North Africa was a theatre which was opened up against the British by the Italians, it wasn't one the British chose to do. The North Africa/Mediterranean was not a minor sideshow that you are claiming.

 

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  Quote TheRedBaron Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14-May-2009 at 10:34
Originally posted by Sarmat

You forgot that that most of the German troops including the most effective units were always on the Eastern Front, starting from 1941.
 
Britain was complitely able to open a limited theater in Europe should it wanted t. But, of course, that would require a much more bigger effort and concentration and, most importantly, casualties than largely insignificant operations in North Africa.
 
So, in terms of capabilities, of course, Britain could do that, but it didn't see the reason why it should, nor was it willing to suffer extra casualties.
 
LOL!
 
What a pile of ill-informed rubbish.
 
The most effective German units always on the Eastern Front from 1941? Really? So the myriad Fallschirmjager Divisions, 1st SS, 2nd SS and various others are not effective?
 
Where would they have opened a second front in Europe on their own?
 
Dieppe proved that British amphibious doctrine, though heading in the right direction, was flawed and needed a great deal more experimentation, not too mention the specialist equipment that was developed for Normandy. Britain also lacked a cohesive airborne froce till 1943, another pre-requisite for a successful landing.
 
Till 1943/44 the Germans still were able to put considerable air power above Western Europe and the British would not have been able to project air superiority over Europe to protect an invasion.
 
The British also had a distinct lack of landing craft, these simply would not arrive in the needed numbers till 1943.
 
But the whole point is WHY would they launch a limited landing against occupied Europe if they did not have the resources to procure it and use it as a means to end the war, as was Normandy?
 
It would have been a pointless waste of men and material that could be better used elsewhere.
 
I wouldnt let your anti-British sentiment influence your statements so much if I was you.
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