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Georgia's future?
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    Posted: 12-Aug-2008 at 21:15
Originally posted by Heraclius

As far as I can see Saakashvili seems to spend more time giving interviews to biased western journalists than doing anything constructive for his country.
 
 
You basically nailed the reason why Saakashvili makes policy decisions that most people cannot understand.
 
Every policy decision he has made was done with 1 basic assumption: the west will bend over backwards to protect Georgia from Russia. He is an American-educated lawyer, and I guess he feels that his savvy arguments and excessive pandering are enough to get the west to give him unconditional support.
 
Ever since he took office, he has tried to go against Russia while pandering to the west, and their Turkish and Azeri allies. He tried to f*** with Gazprom by demanding lower prices, while critisizing Russia, and while letting the BTC pipeline be constructed on his soil, which was basically a slap in the face of Russia. The result was Russia now charges them more than double the rate they previously charged, and Georgia's only alternative is to have around 80% of their energy cut by Gazprom. Even Europe knows not to mess with Gazprom for precisely this reason.
 
If we keep in mind Saakashvili's 1 basic assumption, and add his bad leadership, its not as difficult to see why he does what he does.
 
 
Originally posted by Heraclius

When infact he picked a fight
 
Yes, and its important for us to realize that the Ossetians are hardly the only group to be oppressed by Georgian authorities. Another well-known example is Abkhazia, but also the Armenian and Greek communities on the southern end of the country. In the case of Armenians, not only are the majority-Armenian areas severely underfunded with most of the population unable to speak the Georgian langauge, but Armenian Christianity is not recognized as a religion by Georgia, and therefore recieves no protection, even though the religion has been active in Georgia for over 1600 years. Hundreds (literally) of ancient Armenian churches are in serious condition of collapsing, while a few of them have been confiscated by the state and called "Georgian churches". This is easy for them to do because Georgian church architecture is basically an offshoot of Armenian church architecture, which was developed before Georgia became a Christian nation. Besides what I just mentioned, and even though the Armenian areas are much more concentrated with Armenians than Ossetia is with Ossetians or Abkhazia is with Abkhazians, the Armenian calls for autonomy are completely ignored. The only likely conclusion we can reach is that Georgia is trying to systematically wipe out any traces of Armenians having been on their land, not unlike the policies enacted by their 2 closest allies, Turkey and Azerbaijan, and not unlike what they just tried in Ossetia. Part of the oppression has to do with Armenians being very pro-Russian, but I suspect most of it is just old blood feuds.
 
So Ossetia and Abkhazia, major obstacles for Georgia, are not even the last of Georgia's internal problems.
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Posts: 8792 		  Quote Zagros Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12-Aug-2008 at 21:27
I hope the Russians send peace-keepers for the Armenians too, it seems they might need them as badly as anyone in the face of such ruthless NATO backed Georgian tyranny and chauvinism.  
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:)))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))

quite nice approach. Did u mean, "peacekeepers"?

I'd remind, Migs bombing Gori took of from Gumri Airbase
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Posts: 4221 		  Quote pikeshot1600 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12-Aug-2008 at 22:12
There seems to be a sense that Russia is bringing "justice" and good things to Georgia, and should also send "peacekeepers" to Armenia and Azerbaijan(?) as well.  Not sure where all this is coming from.
 
Russia interposing herself in those other countries, under whatever cover, will bring back the reality of Russian influence and/or control in the entirety of the Caucasus.  That siuation would be exactly in Russia's interests for two important reasons:
 
1)  More influence, if not direct control, over the hydrocarbon resources of the Caucasus and of their distribution routes, and
 
2)  Political capital in the form of very obvious intent to impose her own realities of power on other states that impinge on Russian interests....Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and also Iran.
 
Others may disagree, but Russia will do whatever is necessary to deny the Caspian Basin and its resources to anyone's control other than themselves.  Russia will determine who controls those resources, and who has access to them.  It may not happen overnight, but others had better pay attention to the new realities in this region.
 
Russia has long been, and intends to continue to be, the arbiter of affairs in this political geography.  Frankly, it makes sense that this be so.
 
 
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Posts: 8792 		  Quote Zagros Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12-Aug-2008 at 22:22
That's the case with any major power, without exception.  Why cede to puny countries when you don't have to? 

Armenia and Azerbaijan?  No I was talking about the Armenian region of Georgia.

Russia has its limits too.  The best solution for the world is one involving more than one superpower.


Edited by Zagros - 12-Aug-2008 at 22:24
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Posts: 4221 		  Quote pikeshot1600 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12-Aug-2008 at 22:41
No other power has the muscle and proximity to this geographical region that Russia has.  The US attempting to interpose herself here, far from the sea, is ludicrous.  The US navy can control the sea communications that are important to the US.  Russia can exert substantial control over the land mass that is contiguous to its center.
 
Geopolitical logic should be more obvious than it appears to have been. 
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Posts: 3113 		  Quote Sarmat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12-Aug-2008 at 22:50
Georgia is actually not that far from the Black see...
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Posts: 1810 		  Quote Al Jassas Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12-Aug-2008 at 22:52
Hello to you all
 
I think georgia has now realized the grave error when it refused to return Meskheti Turks to their homelands and I won't be surprised if georgia will change the demographics of its border region particularly where Armenians are the majority. If a third of the turks return they will the majority in those regions, Samtskhe and Mestkheti.
 
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Posts: 3113 		  Quote Sarmat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12-Aug-2008 at 23:18
What is the grave error? They would have a problem with the Turks now and they would have much more problems because the Meschetians would be backed by Turkey.
 
Current Georgian government has problems with building balanced relations with Adjarians who are just Muslim Georgians, they would be in a much bigger trouble with the Turks.
 
All the problems that Georgia faces now are just the results of ultra-nationalism in the 1990th.
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Posts: 4221 		  Quote pikeshot1600 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13-Aug-2008 at 00:07
Originally posted by Sarmat12

Georgia is actually not that far from the Black see...
 
Georgia is on the Black Sea.  If the comment is referencing the post about the US navy, the Black Sea is not important to the US.
 
 
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Posts: 1460 		  Quote ArmenianSurvival Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13-Aug-2008 at 00:53
Originally posted by Al Jassas

I think georgia has now realized the grave error when it refused to return Meskheti Turks to their homelands and I won't be surprised if georgia will change the demographics of its border region particularly where Armenians are the majority.
 
Relocating Meskheti Turks is a dangerous precedent for Georgia. Georgia would then have to make Tbilisi an Armenian-majority city, as it was when Georgia gained independence in 1918. That is, before Menshevik-Georgian authorities, with German support, kicked them out of the city and subsequently invaded the newly created Democratic Republic of Armenia, which was a country of refugees, with widespread famine, politically isolated and under the constant threat of extermination from Ottoman armies from both east and west. It was during this war that they captured the present-day Armenian-populated regions of southern Georgia, which were still mostly Armenian in 1918. It is also very ironic that a Georgian dictator named Stalin kicked Meskheti Turks out of Georgia to begin with. And since Georgia is busy reversing Stalinist policies, why don't they recognize Karabagh and Nakhichevan as part of Armenia, as they were before Stalin gave the regions to Azerbaijan? I highly doubt Georgia would do any of these things, but not surprisingly their Turkophile president has Meshkheti Turks on the top of his list, even though Georgia was not independent when their exile took place, but was fully independent when they kicked Armenians out of Tbilisi and later conquered part of their homeland. But he wants to secure his precious BTC pipeline, which runs slightly to the north of the Armenian areas. This is the main purpose of moving Turks into this area, to prevent disillusioned and oppressed Armenians from potentially seceding, which I believe they should do if they start carrying out this absurdity.
 
Georgia should first recognize that Armenians have their own national church, which ironically has existed in Georgia longer than their own national church, before they embark upon cleaning up the mess of Georgian Bolsheviks like Stalin.
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Posts: 8792 		  Quote Zagros Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13-Aug-2008 at 01:01
Originally posted by pikeshot1600

No other power has the muscle and proximity to this geographical region that Russia has.  The US attempting to interpose herself here, far from the sea, is ludicrous.  The US navy can control the sea communications that are important to the US.  Russia can exert substantial control over the land mass that is contiguous to its center.
 
Geopolitical logic should be more obvious than it appears to have been. 


Iran and Turkey together could check Russia in that region as was the case during pre-80s cold war when the Caspian was split 50/50 USSR/Iran.  In fact, Iran needs nukes for Russia more than anything else, if not Israel or America.   And the demographics of the region favour Iran and Turkey more than Russia.
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Posts: 3711 		  Quote Mortaza Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13-Aug-2008 at 02:18
Originally posted by Sarmat12

What is the grave error? They would have a problem with the Turks now and they would have much more problems because the Meschetians would be backed by Turkey.
 
Current Georgian government has problems with building balanced relations with Adjarians who are just Muslim Georgians, they would be in a much bigger trouble with the Turks.
 
All the problems that Georgia faces now are just the results of ultra-nationalism in the 1990th.
 
You are taking it wrong side. As russia, Turkey(with agreements) had right to interfere adjarian problem but Turkey just ignored it. Turkey supported georgia at that thing too..
 
A united georgia is more beneficial for Turkey.
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Posts: 3113 		  Quote Sarmat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13-Aug-2008 at 03:01
Originally posted by pikeshot1600

 
Georgia is on the Black Sea.  If the comment is referencing the post about the US navy, the Black Sea is not important to the US.
 
 
I meant that the region is within the reach of American aircarriers and thus is vulnerable to American power.
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Posts: 3113 		  Quote Sarmat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13-Aug-2008 at 03:06
Originally posted by Mortaza

 
You are taking it wrong side. As russia, Turkey(with agreements) had right to interfere adjarian problem but Turkey just ignored it. Turkey supported georgia at that thing too..
 
A united georgia is more beneficial for Turkey.
 
I'm not taking sides. It's one thing if something bad is happening to Adjarians it's another thing if Turks are descriminated. For the Turkish government even though still interested in relations with Georgia would be hard to convince the public opinion that such policy is the right one.
 
Besides, fortunately there was no bloodshed in Adjaria like in Ossetia. If Georgia seized Ossetia in the same peaceful manner as Adjaria Russia wouldn't be able to do anything.


Edited by Sarmat12 - 13-Aug-2008 at 03:07
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Originally posted by Sarmat12

If Georgia seized Ossetia in the same peaceful manner as Adjaria Russia wouldn't be able to do anything.



Seems like Saakashvili made the same classic error as Hitler.

Georgia/Adjaria; Germany/Austria/Czechoslovakia; no intervention by outside powers.

Georgia/South Ossetia; Germany/Poland; intervention by outside powers.



...This was nothing but the appeasement program of Chamberlain and Halifax—that concessions should be made to Germany to strengthen her on the Continent and in Eastern Europe, while Britain should remain strong enough on the sea and in the air to prevent Hitler from using war to obtain these concessions.

The fear of Hitler’s using war was based not so much on a dislike of force (neither Lothian nor Halifax was a pacifist in that sense) but on the realization that if Hitler made war against Austria, Czechoslovakia, or Poland, public opinion in France and England might force their governments to declare war in spite of their desire to yield these areas to Germany.  This, of course, is what finally happened...

...There they failed to see that if Germany made war, the British Government would be forced into the war against Germany by public opinion in England.

The German diplomatic agents in London, especially the Ambassador, Dirksen, saw this clearly, but the Government in Berlin listened only to the blind and conceited ignorance of Ribbentrop. 

As dictators themselves, unfamiliar with the British social or constitutional systems, the German rulers assumed that the willingness of the British Government to accept the liquidation of Austria, Czechoslovakia, and Poland implied that the British Government would never go to war to prevent this liquidation.

They did not see that the British Government might have to declare war to stay in office if public opinion in Britain were sufficiently aroused.  The British Government saw this difficulty and as a last resort were prepared to declare war but not to wage war on Germany.  This distinction was not clear to the Germans and was not accepted by the inner core of the Milner Group...

...In a long report of 10 July 1938, Ambassador Dirksen wrote to Ribbentrop as follows:
In England the Chamberlain-Halifax Cabinet is at the helm and the first and most essential plank of its platform was and is agreement with the totalitarian States.... This government displays with regard to Germany the maximum understanding that could be displayed by any of the likely combinations of British politicians.  It possesses the inner-political strength to carry out this task.  It has come nearer to understanding the most essential points of the major demands advanced by Germany, with respect to excluding the Soviet Union from the decision of the destinies of Europe, the League of Nations likewise, and the advisability of bilateral negotiations and treaties.  It is displaying increasing understanding of Germany’s demands in the Sudeten German question.  It would be prepared to make great sacrifices to meet Germany’s other just demands—on the one condition that it is endeavoured to achieve these ends by peaceful means.  If Germany should resort to military means to achieve these ends, England would without the slightest doubt go to war on the side of France...

http://yamaguchy.netfirms.com/cikkek/anglo_12b.html



If Saakashvili had done it peacefully with South Ossetia like the Adjaria case, Russia would no doubt accept the outcome.

But he chose to use force to annex South Ossetia.

He did not see that Russia would be forced to respond to open military aggression.

It was the same case as Britain/France attacking Egypt.

They did not see that USA would had to respond and oppose the open military aggression, even though USA despised Nasser just as much as them.

This important point about why Britain declared war on Germany is not taught in history books.

Historians still prefer the propaganda line that Chamberlain declared war to stop the German aggression, against fascism etc.

That may be true of public opinion in Britain or France, but it was not the reason why Chamberlain declared war.

Chamberlain declaration of war was due to the domestic public pressure on him to respond to German aggression or face collapse of his government.

If Saakashvili had read the above source, he may have played his cards differently.








Edited by Bankotsu - 13-Aug-2008 at 06:30
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Posts: 4664 		  Quote rider Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13-Aug-2008 at 09:47

By the Black Sea, Turkey and the US, if needed, and if they wanted to, could help Georgia.

Sarmat, if you say you are not taking sides, I won't believe you. Cause you are. And it's obvious.

 
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Posts: 3711 		  Quote Mortaza Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13-Aug-2008 at 10:58

If I am not wrong, Russia promised to not harm BTC and Turkey-Russia relation is a lot important. I think, volume of Turkey-Russia trade is bigger than Turkey-germany one.

Turkey will indirectly support georgians but not directly go against Russia.(Specially, If she does not occupy all georgia.)
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Posts: 8595 		  Quote Seko Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13-Aug-2008 at 14:28
The Turkish-Russian trade in around $24 Billion with expectations to go to above $30 billion by the end of the year.
 
Bankotsu try not to bring in arguements form other threads into this one. Otherwise they will be removed.
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Posts: 4221 		  Quote pikeshot1600 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13-Aug-2008 at 15:28
Originally posted by rider

By the Black Sea, Turkey and the US, if needed, and if they wanted to, could help Georgia.

Sarmat, if you say you are not taking sides, I won't believe you. Cause you are. And it's obvious.

 

In the reality of the situation, there is no upside to helping Georgia.  Anyway, it is too late.
 
 
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