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Russian Security and Geopolitics

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  Quote Sarmat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: Russian Security and Geopolitics
    Posted: 07-Jan-2009 at 22:49
Here is an interesting article about Putin's so-called "conservative" economic policy.
 
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  Quote WolfHound85 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08-Jan-2009 at 05:59
Hmm with a faltering global economy I would expect to see Russia trying to flex its muscle more in areas of interest like Ukraine and the Caucasus. 
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  Quote pikeshot1600 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08-Jan-2009 at 14:05
Originally posted by WolfHound85

Hmm with a faltering global economy I would expect to see Russia trying to flex its muscle more in areas of interest like Ukraine and the Caucasus. 
 
I agree that these two areas are both most crucial to Russia's interests (needed cereal grains and influence over the Caspian region), and also the easiest to influence due to geography.  Sending a handful of overage naval vessels to Venezuela to prop up the socialist caudillo of the moment is meaningless.  The US just ignored it. 
 
Putin may boast of his foresight and economic savvy, but, as with the investor who "got out just in time," it is most likely more luck than anything.  Regardless of their oil and gas, Russia has more economic debilities than strengths.  We see what happens when volitile commodity prices fall substantially.
 
As a side note, has anyone noticed that we seem to view Putin as a Czar?  Maybe it has to do with the Imperial Golden Cockerel that always seems to be seen behind his photo ops.  Big smile
 
   
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  Quote pikeshot1600 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 15-Jan-2009 at 14:17
Gee, no comments about the rather obvious Russian action on natural gas at the coldest time of the year?  Any chance the Russians want to make sure everyone close to their western (Western) borders knows who has the power, even though oil prices have plummeted?
 
I read the EU is *cough* "threatening lawsuits."  LOL
 
 
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  Quote Beylerbeyi Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 15-Jan-2009 at 14:39
I read the EU is *cough* "threatening lawsuits."  LOL

That's called 'civilisation', something US doesn't know about. Anyway, what would US do? Threaten invasion to get their gas? Like you did to Iraq? Bring freedom and democracy to Russia? Yeah, right.

I remember, you were threatening Russia over Georgia, but in the end it did eff-all. That's US for you, bragging bully, beats up those who can't defend themselves and steals their resources, and when it sees someone even 1/10th of its size defend itself (Vietnam and soon Afghanistan), it runs away with its tail between its legs... 

So save us your bragging, there is nothing you can do about Russia.
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  Quote pikeshot1600 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 15-Jan-2009 at 14:51
That wasn't the question, Bey. 
 
 
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  Quote Sarmat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 15-Jan-2009 at 14:54
Originally posted by pikeshot1600

Gee, no comments about the rather obvious Russian action on natural gas at the coldest time of the year?  Any chance the Russians want to make sure everyone close to their western (Western) borders knows who has the power, even though oil prices have plummeted?
 
I read the EU is *cough* "threatening lawsuits."  LOL
 
 
 
Yes, I believe they gonna sue the Ukraine that is stealing the European gas.
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  Quote Seko Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 15-Jan-2009 at 15:04
Sarmat, the Russian gas ploy just happens to occur during the height of the cold season. An opportune time to shaft the west. Blaming the Ukraine as a scapegoat looks like typical Russian politics. That's how poor public opinion is of Russia. Nobody in the west will give them benefit of the doubt especially when Putin and Medvedev are calling the shots.
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  Quote Beylerbeyi Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 15-Jan-2009 at 15:12
That wasn't the question, Bey.
 
I am really sick and tired of US arrogance and aggression. It is high time that you realise that your neo-con party is over, Pike. 

Actually after 8 years of neo-con debacles I am behaving emotionally and not being tactical enough. Before I would have been glad to read Americans bash the EU. Let the hyenabite the jackal...
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  Quote pikeshot1600 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 15-Jan-2009 at 15:12
It has been discussed before that Russia will take opportunities to influence, and or intimidate, political entities not under her direct control to further Russian geopolitical interests....as noted above, in Ukraine and in the Caucasus/Caspian regions.
 
The message of Russian ability to project influence by use of these opportunities is intended for more states than Ukraine.  When geopolitical interests are concerned, they are invariably vital interests, and public opinion is of no real consequence.
 
 
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  Quote Sarmat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 15-Jan-2009 at 15:56
Originally posted by Seko

Sarmat, the Russian gas ploy just happens to occur during the height of the cold season. An opportune time to shaft the west. Blaming the Ukraine as a scapegoat looks like typical Russian politics. That's how poor public opinion is of Russia. Nobody in the west will give them benefit of the doubt especially when Putin and Medvedev are calling the shots.
 
Dear Seko,
 
But why the Ukrainian authorities didn't pay for the gas although they knew that the old agreement was going to expire on January 1, 2009?
Why they are stealing the European gas while perfectly knowing that Russia won't like it?
The world is in the mindst of a severe economic crisis and Russia badly needs money as well. Why should it subsidize Ukraine for nothing?
Is Russia a selfless sponsor? Who is in the direct responsibility for the Ukrainian people?
Moscow authorities or the government in Kiev?
 
No Seko, on the contrary, I see that like in the past the scapegoat is Russia here. And it's no matter what happens, but "Russian imperialists" are always bad that's how the West sees it.
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  Quote Beylerbeyi Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 31-Jan-2009 at 12:19
Russia wants a new peace deal in Europe with the neo-cons gone but NATO men still behaving as rabid dogs. We'll see what Obama will do:  

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7861248.stm
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  Quote pikeshot1600 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 31-Jan-2009 at 17:04
So, according to the BBC article, Russia agrees to "be no threat to Europe" as long as Europe does what Russia wants.  That is little different than Molotov's old litany "what is ours is ours, and what is yours is negotiable."
 
Russia (Soviet version) has been trying to split NATO since De Gaulle decided Napoleon still mattered.  I am sure they will continue to try, but the desired split now is to detach the old Russian territories (Czarist version) such as Poland and the Baltic states and restore sufficient influence to return those territories to the dependant influence of historic Russian interests.  That is all understandable.
 
Russian interests are legitimate, and (I know you find this hard to believe coming from me) NATO interposing itself in Georgia and Ukraine was ill advised.  Had that not been attempted, Russia might (might) not be seen by NATO as a possible resurgent threat. 
 
However, vital interests being as enduring as they become, once those are identified, Russia's geopolitical logic has been to exert as much influence and control over European affairs as they can.  Russia faces a future that is at best uncertain in the competition for the control of resources in Eurasia.  Russia also understands that her adversary in future is more likely to be China than any European power, but cancelling out any potential threat from Europe will be more critical in future than ever.
 
Obama will address and secure the interests of the United States, as it is his job, and those include not surrendering controlling influence to another great power on the European peninsula.
 
 
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  Quote Beylerbeyi Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02-Feb-2009 at 11:42
Obama will address and secure the interests of the United States, as it is his job, and those include not surrendering controlling influence to another great power on the European peninsula.
US accepted Soviet sphere in Eastern Europe after the war even though it was much more powerful than the USSR. When USSR collapsed, it expanded into Eastern Europe. Russians (rightly) see this as US aggression. But US  has overextended itself. Today, Russia is resurgent, and US suffers from imperial overreach.

The question is not whether Obama would want to continue the US influence over Western and Eastern Europe, you are right about that. Of course he does, or rather has to do it, as it is his job as emperor. The question is whether he will recognise the situation that he is in (i.e. imperial overreach) and come to an understanding with the Russians by giving in to some of their demands, or is he going to act like the neo-cons before him (and the barking NATO dogs mentioned in the article) and continue to practice the neo-con mantra of 'what is ours is ours, what is yours is ours too'.

Russia is powerless to extend its influence into Western Europe, so I believe it would be wise for EU to go behind the back of the US and reach a deal with Russia if Obama continues the cowboy international policy. They are already giving signs of this happening.  


Edited by Beylerbeyi - 02-Feb-2009 at 11:45
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  Quote Sarmat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02-Feb-2009 at 15:31
Originally posted by pikeshot1600

Gee, no comments about the rather obvious Russian action on natural gas at the coldest time of the year?  Any chance the Russians want to make sure everyone close to their western (Western) borders knows who has the power, even though oil prices have plummeted?
 
I read the EU is *cough* "threatening lawsuits."  LOL
 
 
 
Russians just want to get money for their gas. That's it. It was a Ukrainian state propaganda that made it look like "another Russian invasion" in order to get a necessary aid from the West that always sees Russia as an "agressor."  However, it's only in the best Russian interest to guarantee the gas supplied in Europe without any impediments. Too bad, this legitimate business has been continously blackmailed by the corrupted Ukrainian regime that steals the gas and even sells it to its own people for the price that is several times more than the original price they pay to Russia. They are very lucky, indeed, to have evil Putin and Co on their Eastern borders. Perfect scapegoats to scare all Europe to death.
 
I hope that the Baltic pipeline project can be accomplished and Russia can get rid of the Ukrainian racketeers for good.


Edited by Sarmat - 02-Feb-2009 at 15:39
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  Quote Sarmat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02-Feb-2009 at 15:40
Russia is trying to communicate "friendly" messages to the new US Administration.
 
We'll see how it works...
 
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