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What if...1918 Kaiser refuses to abdicat
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Cryptic View Drop Down
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Posts: 1962 		  Quote Cryptic Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: What if...1918 Kaiser refuses to abdicat
    Posted: 03-May-2007 at 16:09

What if...

It is the fall of 1918.   German armies are exhausted and on the verge of collapse.  Germany accepts the armistance.  The Kaiser, however, refuses to abdicate.  Determined to crush  mutinies in the Imperial Navy and the  Leftist Spartakus militias contolling parts of Berlin and Hamburg, The Kaiser leads a mixed force of monarchist loyalists and right wing political zealots against the leftist militias. 

What happens next...
- Will Germany be plunged into full scale war?
- Can the Kaiser's forces defeat the leftist groups?
-Will Hitler still come to power?
-If no Hitler, would WWII  have been fought?
 


Edited by Cryptic - 03-May-2007 at 16:10
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Posts: 4221 		  Quote pikeshot1600 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03-May-2007 at 16:20
In the scenario above, all that can be reasonably sure is that civil war results.  Also possible is French troops become involved in the Ruhr/Rhineland to protect France's interests.
 
Where it goes is another "what if" alternative history exercise.  Fun but pointless.
 
 
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Posts: 3335 		  Quote pekau Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03-May-2007 at 16:22
If that happened, God truly save Germany.
     
   
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  Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03-May-2007 at 17:38
I think that that would have actually stabilized German government that the fledgling democracy that arose out of decades of aristocratic repression. A German government, in the style of the UK, with either a figurehead, or active but severly limited Monarch alongside a green, but intelligent, and energetic Reichstag would establish a smooth transition from Autocracy to Democracy. With the traditional element still in function that would hinder the aristocratic takeover attempts, and the democratic element would curb extreme liberal respones as wel. To the outside world of course Germany would be the agressor, and they would pay a hefty fine for that, however at least they would have their government stable enough to withstand the economic crises that beleaguered the German "Weimar" Republic post-WWI. Hitler would not have a chance to rise to prominence, especially with the pompous nature of Wilhelm II, his competitive, and boastful nature undermined Bismarck decades earlier as well.
 
 
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Posts: 5711 		  Quote Constantine XI Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03-May-2007 at 19:09
This thread belongs in historical amusement.
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Posts: 1962 		  Quote Cryptic Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06-May-2007 at 11:28
Originally posted by pikeshot1600

In the scenario above, all that can be reasonably sure is that civil war results.   
But probably not a full civil war.  The class divide in Germany was not as great as Russia or 1930s Spain.  My guess is that several thousand right wing / leftwing militia men and political activists would get killed.   The average German, though exhaused by WWI and unwilling to join militias, would still view the Kaiser's transition government as the legitimate government.  The militant  leftists would slowly get "squeezed out".   
Originally posted by es_bih

I think that that would have actually stabilized German government that the fledgling democracy that arose out of decades of aristocratic repression.
 
Hitler would not have a chance to rise to prominence, especially with the pompous nature of Wilhelm II, his competitive, and boastful nature undermined Bismarck decades earlier as well.
 
Well said.   Who knows, with luck, Hilter would be killed in right verse left militia fighting.   The vast magority of Germans were not willing to participate in any fighting after WWI so casualties were going to be pretty high amongst the few willing combatants.  (with monarchist / right wing militias slowly, but  steadily defeating their leftist rivals.) 
 
 


Edited by Cryptic - 06-May-2007 at 11:41
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Posts: 7035 		  Quote gcle2003 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06-May-2007 at 13:09
Interesting question but I can't decide on an answer as to whether he would have been accepted or forced to abdicate.
 
However, even if the Kaiser stayed (nominally) in power, I don't think it would have stopped Hitler's rise to power. After all the existence of a constitutional monarchy didn't stop Mussolini or the Japanese nationalists.
 
It wouldn't have stopped the attitude of the Allies to the defeated Germany, the consequent hyperinflation, and German resentment of the settlement. And I doubt the Kaiser as constitutional monarch would have done any differently than Hindenburg as president. The elections of 1932 would have gone much as they did in reality, with exactly the same power groups going through the same machinations.


Edited by gcle2003 - 06-May-2007 at 13:09
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Posts: 1962 		  Quote Cryptic Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06-May-2007 at 17:00
Originally posted by gcle2003

Interesting question but I can't decide on an answer as to whether he would have been accepted or forced to abdicate.
I think he would be accepted, even if it meant that the German public was too apathetic to actively oppose him.   His acceptance might be determined by how skillfull he was at reinventing himself from "Autocrat" to "Constitutional Monarch with Certain Privelages".  The Kaiser was not unflexible like Czar Nicholas.
Originally posted by gcle2003

 
However, even if the Kaiser stayed (nominally) in power, I don't think it would have stopped Hitler's rise to power. After all the existence of a constitutional monarchy didn't stop Mussolini or the Japanese nationalists.
 
Good points.  
 
Hitler, however, drew alot of his strength in the elections from the still viable threat presented by militant communism.  If the Kaiser and his Center-Right political coalition decisively beat Germany's militant communists in 1920, one of Hilter's "reasons to be" would be gone.
 
Free from militant internal opposition, a stronger German right-wing based constitutional democracy then refuses to make further repatriation payments demanded by the Treaty of Versailles (Hitler's second "reason to be").   The USA never fully supported the demands of the treaty and may quietly support a German democracy's  refusal to pay. 
 
In short a stable right wing oriented German government would still face many challenges, but Hitler and his NAZIS would be playing to a far smaller audience


Edited by Cryptic - 06-May-2007 at 17:29
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Posts: 7035 		  Quote gcle2003 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08-May-2007 at 05:29
I don't disagree with that analysis given 'if the Kaiser and his centre-Right coalition decisively beat' the communists. However I don't think they would have any more than the historic Weimar government did.
 
I'd add that if the Kaiser had stayed, Hitler (outwardly) would have been a stout supporter of the monarchy. And the Kaiser would have chosen him as Chancellor as Hindenburg (and von Papen) did for much the same reasons.


Edited by gcle2003 - 08-May-2007 at 05:30
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Posts: 2200 		  Quote mamikon Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08-May-2007 at 11:38
I think he would face the same fate as the Russian Czar...except by his Generals, not the peasants/workers
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Posts: 1962 		  Quote Cryptic Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08-May-2007 at 21:35
Originally posted by mamikon

I think he would face the same fate as the Russian Czar...except by his Generals, not the peasants/workers
I cant see that happening.  I don't think that German Officers had anywhere near the hostility against the Kaiser as many Russians had towards Czar Nicholas.
 
The Kaiser ruled over a far more equitable social system that had at least some democratic components.  In contrast to Czar Nicholas, The Kaiser and other German privelaged social elites fought WWI with a prepared army and displayed far more better leadership skills.
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Posts: 119 		  Quote Patch Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11-Jun-2007 at 12:03
You are forgetting that Germany was the defeated power after November 1918.  The German army had been completely defeated. 
I don't think the Kaiser had any choice other to abdicate and flee to Holland, otherwise he would have been arrested by the Allies. 
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  Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11-Jun-2007 at 13:50
Originally posted by Patch

You are forgetting that Germany was the defeated power after November 1918.  The German army had been completely defeated. 
I don't think the Kaiser had any choice other to abdicate and flee to Holland, otherwise he would have been arrested by the Allies. 
 
He was a reigning monarch, the English monarchy would not let that happen as that would shame them as well. The fact is that he could have stabilized the government, as the English monarchs do in a more or less powerless role as head of state, but not government.
 
However, for the Kaiser to have fought a sensless civil war was not an option, he could perhaps gotten some assistance from the allied forces had he accepted some sort of democratic monarchy.
 
Nevertheless, if he had commanded a civil war it would have devastated Germany more than the Great Depression. In a way he did what was best for Germany at that time.
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