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What if the arch duke ferdinand wasn't assassinate

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  Quote gramberto Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: What if the arch duke ferdinand wasn't assassinate
    Posted: 04-Nov-2006 at 22:48
What if he was saved? Do you think the European system was so fragile it just would have been something else that sparked the war?
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  Quote Majkes Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05-Nov-2006 at 02:53
Ther would be defenetly other reason to start the war. European powers were just waiting for the opportunity to start war.
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  Quote Kapikulu Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05-Nov-2006 at 05:07

Just an excuse...

We gave up your happiness
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we couldn't find neither;
we made up sorrows for ourselves;
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  Quote gramberto Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05-Nov-2006 at 09:42
Are you sure about that? It seemed to me that the alliances got very tight. For the past several hundred years European alliances were tangled. It was only during about 1850-1918 that alliances were split in two. You don't think it was possible that the alliance structure could have evolved?
 
It may have been that Germany's power grew too fast and it caused a shake up in the old structure.
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  Quote Majkes Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05-Nov-2006 at 10:51
Most of historians claims that Europe was at the time" barrel of powder." It just waited for something to blow it. European Powers strenghtened their armies for war. I don't think alliances could have changed a lot. Germany were getting stronger and this was uniting Russia, France and England against them. Some smaller countries could have changed position but main line of hostility would stay.
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  Quote Dampier Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05-Nov-2006 at 11:17
Originally posted by Majkes

Most of historians claims that Europe was at the time" barrel of powder." It just waited for something to blow it. EuropeanPowers strenghtened their armies for war. I don't think alliances could have changed a lot. Germany were getting stronger and this was uniting Russia, France and England against them. Some smaller countries could have changed position but main line of hostility would stay.

    
I agree with that statement totally.

France, Russia and Britain were scared of the rise of German nationalism and power. Britain resented the German Navy. France wanted revenge for the humiliation of the Franco-Prussian war and Russia would side with France. In the Balkans nationalism was growing and as it was supported by countires like Britain the power in the region Austria was very worried which in turn made Germany worried. German nationalism was also very great and they felt it was time to show the older powers that they were no longer the split powers that were stomped by Napoleon on his way to Russia. Turkey wanted to regain her former glory and power.

An excuse would have been found no matter what.
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  Quote Aelfgifu Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06-Nov-2006 at 07:38
I agree too with the above. The assasination was just an excuse, and any excuse would have done. Germany needed war, Austria-Hungaria needed Germany, Frnace and Russia were stuck with each other and Belgium was under English protection. War was the only outcome.
 
I do believe that the men in power never knew what was coming for them. They still viewed war in the way it was fought in the Krim and in the French-German war. I do not believe they understood the horror of the trenchwar they were about to unleash. If they had, they might have been more careful politically...

Women hold their councils of war in kitchens: the knives are there, and the cups of coffee, and the towels to dry the tears.
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  Quote Mosquito Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06-Nov-2006 at 15:15
Since Isaak Asimov wrote his "Fundation" there were many people interested in - as he called it- psychohistoria. They claim that war was inevitable. As well as such events like Russian revolution. One has even made a mathematic equation which gave the result that if there was no revolution in Russia in 1917, it would happend no later than in 1934.
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  Quote gramberto Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06-Nov-2006 at 17:04
war may have been inevititble the question is when and how it was fought. If arch duke ferdinand was not assassinate, is there a chance that France, Brittain,. and Russian may have initiated an attack?
 
If Germany kept getting stronger relative to them would they have wanted to force a confrontation sooner rather than later? What if the first world war started in 1930 instead of 1918, that could have meant that germany would have been far more powerful relative to the allies.
 
I listened to some history lectures on the first world war from the teaching company (www.teach12.com) and they argued that germany was more powerful relative to everyone else after the war and in spite of losing because.
 
1. Less great powers
2. The other powers were weakened alot
3. germany could rebuild its economic engine.
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  Quote Aelfgifu Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07-Nov-2006 at 06:53
I don't think Germany was in any way better off than the allied forces after WWI. They were not allowed to rebuilt their economy at all, but meanwhile thy did have to pay huge sums to the others as bloodmoney. As they did not have it and could not earn it, they loaned the money in the US, which was the only place where there still was money. So Us loaned the money to Germany, who gave it to the European Allies, who in turn used it to pay off their wartime debts to US. Money went round in a circle, no one got better.
 
In fact, the extreme poverty in Germany after WWI is one of the main explanations why a man like Hitler could get power; he promised an end to poverty, and at first he delivered too. So to state that Germany was better off after the war is very cynical.


Edited by Aelfgifu - 07-Nov-2006 at 06:56

Women hold their councils of war in kitchens: the knives are there, and the cups of coffee, and the towels to dry the tears.
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  Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26-Apr-2008 at 12:50
I agree, the assassination was just the spark, the battle lines where drawn the minute the two mutual assistance treaties where signed, the tripe entente and the triple alliance, this of course combined with the Kiazers colonial ambitions where the true causes of WW1  
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  Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26-Apr-2008 at 14:17
Its likely a European war would have broken out eventually. Would it have become a global  war like it did and change the history of the world forever, thats another question. It is entirely possible Britain would remain out, and if Britain remained out its unlikely the US would be sucked in, or that perhaps France would collapse quickly and be forced to cede another couple of departments to the Kaiser.
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  Quote gcle2003 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26-Apr-2008 at 15:26
Moreover, in slightly different circumstances the Ottoman  Empire might also have stayed out. Britain and the Ottomans had been really pretty close for most of the preceding 50 years or so, and from a global as opposed to European perspective Britain's real natural antagonist in Asia was Russia.
 
Japan would presumably have still taken advantage of the situation to move in on German interests though. 
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  Quote Byzantine Emperor Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26-Apr-2008 at 20:04

Since this is a "What-If" scenario, I am moving it to Historical Amusement.

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  Quote rider Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28-Apr-2008 at 17:10
What might have been is usually irrelevant.

Squirrels might fly now if Alexander had lost at Issos.

However, the developing technology might have meant a quicker beginning to the war; perhaps even the Germans could've pushed as far as they did in WWII with the tanks... Some small developments in the technology with which the countries began war may change everything.
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  Quote Aristilus Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11-Aug-2008 at 10:51
I don't think Britain could have stayed out if France was in danger of being overun, if only to try and stop Germany gaining control of ports on the Atlantic seaboard. There is no telling what kind of damage U-Boats could have done. Would the Germans have lost a battle of the Atlantic in the WW1. An interesting debate I think.
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  Quote warwolf1969 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09-Jul-2010 at 05:35
If Britain was not at war with Germany then there would have been no need to worry about the U-Boats.  Also remember that the entente was not actually a real alliance.  Britain had to grasp at a treaty that was nearly 90 years old as an excuse to declare war on Germany.  They had no reason to because of the simple german decleration against France.  There is also no real evidence that Germany wanted a war with either Engand or France. 
Saying that I do think that WW1 would have happened anyhow within probably four or five years.  The relationships were too volitile, and if you add the balkans into the mix, you've got a massive powder keg.  Something would have set one of the great powers at the other, and dragged everyone else into the war.
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  Quote DreamWeaver Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10-Jul-2010 at 10:53
All the pieces are in place, it merely requires someone to push the button. 
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  Quote opuslola Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10-Jul-2010 at 14:42
Dream Weaver, it seems you took the time to read all of the old posts!

As the Brits say; Good Show!, "hip, hip, and all that!" Talley ho!

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  Quote Patryk Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18-Sep-2010 at 21:43
If the Archduke had not been killed in Sarajevo, or simply if Princip had finished eating his sandwich and THEN tried to shoot the Arch Duke form a distance, I think the outcome would have indeed been different. The northern Europeans like launching there wars in the summer months.  If they missed their May-August window for action, they would shelve any war plans for another year.  War fever, which was gaining steam since 1910, might have abated. 
 
If some provocation ocurred in winter, they might have to limit themselves to some colonial actions, like the Boer War or the Philippine War. 
 
But even with a healthy and happy Arch Duke Franz Ferdinand in the Spring of 1915, we would still have an England worried about German grown.  An Austria worried about it's decline.  A Russia wanted to revive its prestige after being humiliated in 1905 by non-whites.  And the living Ottoman carcass to be divided up in the Balkans and Middle East.  War would have come eventually but possibly, had it not been in summer, it could have been kept on Europe's periphery or in the colonies.
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