Modern Korea: North vs South, who wins?

Anyways... If they ever do start a war it WILL be destructive... I welcome unification but... whew...

Originally posted by Dalsung Hwarang Anyways... If they ever do start a war it WILL be destructive... I welcome unification but... whew...

Edited by pekau - 10-Nov-2006 at 10:56

Originally posted by pekau Originally posted by Dalsung Hwarang Anyways... If they ever do start a war it WILL be destructive... I welcome unification but... whew...   I don't know. Sure, the Korean unification would allow tons of reserved resources in North Korea, and both nations would no longer have to spend enormous money for military funds... but I am slightly worried about North Korea's huge poverty that might affect not only the standard of living in Korea, but also unified Korea's economy and social life. Though Korea is unitied geographically and politically, the North and South Koreans would still remain divided due to the standard of living. Many North Koreans would work in cheap labor while South Koreans prosper. Inflation would not even become a joke, since unified economy of Korea is like combining American economy with Sudan. Class struggle would become terrible...   Look at Germany. After combining East and West Germany within... 20 years or so... (Give or take) The class struggle and economcial difference between them are fairly high. The classical and economcial division between Germans are among the major problem that Germans face today.   (Accuracy check may do some good, Germans)   And imagine the worst scenerio for Koreans. Korea was divided more than 50 years!   And I understand that many soldiers are trained based of military training from former U.S.S.R. but many of rich North Koreans receive military education based on Western world. They teach communist ideologies so that the well-educated generals do not create a coup against Kim Jung!!!

I do agree to a degree that it will be much bigger burden for South Korea to accomodate  North Korean economy than West Germany has been doing for East Germany.  South Korean economy is not in the same level with West Germany was and North Korean economy is defintely in worse shape than East Germany ever was.  Even population ratio is more like 2 to 1 for South/North Korea while it was more like 4 to 1 for West/East Germany which means there are more West German to spread the burden among them for a East German than South Koreans would have to bear for a North Korean.

But there are many positive aspects also.  First, as mentioned above many North Koreans will fill up those cheap labor positions, but that part was same even for East Germans.  However working cheap labors in United Germany still pays a lot better than being a skilled professional in East Germany.  As many developed nations would, South Korean population growth rate is slowing down rapidly and due to their improved diet, living standard and health care system South Korea is projected tol have one of the oldest  population  in  the world.  They are already importing increasing amount of SE Asian labor force for the same reasons.

Second, much of North Korea is filled with mountains which contains many important industrial resorces like iron and coal as mentioned above also, but also rivers running through these mountains are better suited for building dams to generate power than ones in South.  A great help for a nation which does not produce a single drop for oil.  Also, as South has invested in Geumgangsan area already, Mt Baekdu or Kaesung could be developed as tourist destinations.

Third, which also has been metioned, military spending is no joke for either Korea.  Cutting down just half of that for both Koreas will be great lifts for both Koreas.   And I don't think the United korea will be invaded by anybody anytime soon, especially if they can keep North's nukes.

Fourth, Koreans are known for their passion(?) for education.  At first North Koreans will fill cheaper labors but younger children will recieve better education and they will catch up faster than the grown ups.

Fifth, about that class struggle, I don't deny that it won't happen but South Korea is no stranger to class struggles one of the most successful case of civil rights and labor movement.  South Korean university students alone could lift heavy weights in this issue, they already threw out a couple of U.S. backed dictators of their own.  It will be a problem, sure.  But I also see them making a huge improvements within a generation.

Sixth, North Korea has been so isolated from the rest of the world for so long. but in United Korea, North Korea will be in the middle of one of the biggest and fastest growing economy of China and one of the most advanced technology and industry of South Korea and even Japan.  As I've mentioned in other threads, what would be the economical value of highways and railroads running through Pusan to Seoul to Pyungyang to Beijing to Shanghai to HongKong?  Probably enough rebuild North Korea several times.  Plus, isn't 'rebuilding a nation' one of the fastest growing and most profitable business in the world today?

Seventh,  United korea will be a more soveregin nation that either korea will ever be.  There will be no excuse for a foreign troops to have bases in South Korea.  Even China will see South Korea as more of a neighbor than U.S. military outpost which will ease the tention in East Asia even more than the unification of Korea itself.

Sure, accomodating failing North Korean economy is no easy task, but the alternative is to live with a time bomb that ticks faster by each morning headlines.  It will be a hard work, but you will sleep better after a hard day's work.

If the numbers still doesn't crunch up right, remember, one plus one can be more than two.  The whole can be greater than the sum of its parts.  Thank God, Koreans are good at math.

p.s.  I don't know how I ended up quoting the post I was writing but  if you read the previous posts I'm sure you can figure out which  part was qoutes are from others and which part is my post.  Sorry.


Edited by King Kang of Mu - 16-Nov-2006 at 07:35

Pekau I do not want to get in to this topic but your  wrong on the WW 2, Germany was actually the best equipped army in world in both World Wars... Mainly the second World War�

Gundimar I agree with what you said, but theirs no way I can see how China and Japan getting the US presence out of Asia. You mite be rite that Japan and some others are growing tired of us being their. But they or Japan at least will choose �the less of two evils� and rather have the US in Asia� Japan and China do not like each other�.

Edited by Praetorian - 21-Jan-2007 at 03:26

Do you know anyhing about The ROK Military? Sources? proof for your claims? or are you just making things up [me thinks the latter].

Originally posted by Praetorian Pekau I do not want to get in to this topic but your  wrong on the WW 2, Germany was actually the best equipped army in world in both World Wars... Mainly the second World War� Gundimar I agree with what you said, but theirs no way I can see how China and Japan getting the US presence out of Asia. You mite be rite that Japan and some others are growing tired of us being their. But they or Japan at least will choose �the less of two evils� and rather have the US in Asia� Japan and China do not like each other�.

Meh, nuclear warfare may make most of our hypothesis to throw off...

It is easy to compare South Korea with France prior to WWII. South Korea's military is much more advance than North, but South Korean military would not be able to organize itself to prepare for North's invasion. South Korea's government is among the most corrupted government in the world. (It's sustaining because US influence over South Korean government is still huge.) North would overwhelm South easily with their numerical supremacy, and their army is not like Russians in WWII. They actually have decent weapons. Let's not get to North Korea's supply crisis again. Remember when many Western economists believed that weak North Korea's economy would make Jung Il's regime to decline within 50 years? 67 years has passed, and North Korea is still strong as ever. North Koreans may have starving, but the military is well-fed and many, if not all, North Korean troops are still loyal to North Korea.

If US get involve, so would China. Granted, US are superior in technology, but China has numbers. Plus, US military is weakening. Us is already concentrating in Iraq, Afganistan and other parts of Middle East. If Second Korean War commences, I am not sure how many US troops would be able to help Koreans out. China, however, could cocentrate all their available reinforcements to Korea... and Japanese forces would not play a significant part.... other than some naval significance...

Originally posted by Easternknight   If only because of its' ideological stance, I'd say that South Korea is more powerful.   In the event of war between the two, South Korea could assuredly call on help from the United States and its' allies. A similar situation to the first Korean War could very well develop, but like in the First Korean War, I don't believe that China, North Korea and other communist allies would be able to triumph. In my opinion, in the event of war, the forces of capitalism would either fight the battle over Korea to a draw or emerge victorious.   Regardless of the military technology of both, I think that the US has better technology than either. In the event of war, the US could probably be able to send over tanks, ships, planes, pilots, supplies and more. With such things at its' disposal, North Korea would be unable to score an offensive victory over South Korea. At best, it could play the nuclear weapons trump card and threaten to blow up the whole peninsula should its' own security be threatened. It's possible, in my opinion, that North Korea wants nuclear weapons for defensive purposes like this anyways.   America still has a small force in Korea All that is required is additional Air power and Naval Power to decrease The Death Toll. South Korea Victory is already assured. China is becoming a Superpower they Would be mad to want a Time-Bomb like North Korea being a problem for the fact that it exsists bad PR, Tens of Thousands of North Korean Refugees pouring into China, PRC sending Money to keep North Korea alive etc even if American Soldiers were to stay in the united Korea Its by far the better choice.       [QUOTE=pekau] It is easy to compare South Korea with France prior to WWII. South Korea's military is much more advance than North, but South Korean military would not be able to organize itself to prepare for North's invasion. South Korea's government is among the most corrupted government in the world. (It's sustaining because US influence over South Korean government is still huge.) North would overwhelm South easily with their numerical supremacy, and their army is not like Russians in WWII. They actually have decent weapons. Let's not get to North Korea's supply crisis again. Remember when many Western economists believed that weak North Korea's economy would make Jung Il's regime to decline within 50 years? 67 years has passed, and North Korea is still strong as ever. North Koreans may have starving, but the military is well-fed and many, if not all, North Korean troops are still loyal to North Korea. Could you please explain to me why South Korea could not organize? even though it has one of the most organized Militarys in the world? As it has been preparing and kept on edge for decades planning every possiable North Korean Attack? South Korean Goverment is not corrupt compared to most of the world, Compare it to any non-Western European Goverment and even then their goverments are still pretty corrupt ROK is pretty good compared with everyone else. your saying the American Goverment has control of ROK Goverment? then why is an anti-American Liberal the Presdient? um North Korea could not easily overwhealm the ROK as ROK Troops are better Equipped, better protected and have the advantage of Defense in heavily forested/Mountinous and Urban Areas. Lets just forget about ROKN and ROKAF having total Supremacy. 1. DPRK is HUGE on Counterfiting money 2. China Supplies them with money 3. The Military Food Supply is terriable just Google Images of North Korean Soldiers other then the ones right on the DMZ you wil know what im talking about. Loyal? interviews with North Korean Soldiers have said that everyone is hungry [including soldiers] and Morale is down the drain.         If US get involve, so would China. Granted, US are superior in technology, but China has numbers. Plus, US military is weakening. Us is already concentrating in Iraq, Afganistan and other parts of Middle East. If Second Korean War commences, I am not sure how many US troops would be able to help Koreans out. China, however, could cocentrate all their available reinforcements to Korea... and Japanese forces would not play a significant part.... other than some naval significance...   As Already Explained China would profit from a United Korea, North Korea is just one giant headache for P.R.C. China is quickly becoming a Superpower why would it risk losing its Status? not to mention its economy depends on American Consumers.  China going into Full-out War with Japan,ROK,US and maybe even Taiwan Would cause The death toll for the PLA to be staggering and with so many PLA Soldiers killed PRC wouldnt be able to produce large amounts of equipment required to field a new army in the millons. let alone feed them or Supply them PRC would be begging for internal uprisings.   China probably can send more stocks of supplies, weapons, munitions, and such more than US, though the quality may be still favor US.   The Quality would easily go to US Already explained IT cant produce them fast enough for its soldiers. and the Commoners would call for internal revloution. let us forget all the massive problems China is having internally right now.   And yes, North Korea has been desparate ever since George Bush's declarating North Korea to be "Axis of evil". Ties and diplomacy between America and North Korea is weakening.... and North Korea better have some kind of security before they end up like Iraq.   Interesting enough, North Korea was actually getting along with South before Bush was elected as president of US. In fact, I remember South Korean gov. actually worrying about Kim Jung Il's newfound popularity due to this. Foreign intervention has been the curse of Korea's destiny. First China, Japan, Russia, America and China again... No wonder Koreans dilike foreigners so much...     meh.

Nothing's 100%, Easterknight. As a historian, you should know that.