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Modern Korea: North vs South, who wins?
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JuMong View Drop Down
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Posts: 89 		  Quote JuMong Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: Modern Korea: North vs South, who wins?
    Posted: 01-Nov-2006 at 18:17
Technically,


South Korea is still at war with it's evil twin, North. This dispute has never been funny resolved. With the recent nuke test conducted by our dear leader Kim Jung-Il, the tension in that region is as alive as ever. If WWIII were to take place, it would surely happen here.

The Question is who would win this War?  Many uninformed people believe it would be a quick victory for the South but  close scrutiny reveals that it's simply not as simple as it first appears.

Doing a quick Google research might be appropriate before considering this matter. Good luck! Wink



Edited by JuMong - 01-Nov-2006 at 18:19
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Maharbbal View Drop Down
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Posts: 2120 		  Quote Maharbbal Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 01-Nov-2006 at 20:55
Still if I was a South Korean generalissimo I'd buy out all the North's army with half kilo of rice.
I am a free donkey!
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Posts: 952 		  Quote Paul Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 01-Nov-2006 at 21:04
trouble is you'd sell it straight back for a deep fried terrier breast and a couple of alsation drumsticks.
 
Gives a whole new meaning to the term, capitalist dogs.....


Edited by Paul - 01-Nov-2006 at 22:14
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Posts: 109 		  Quote Easternknight Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 01-Nov-2006 at 21:44

I'm too tired to fight any more; let's stop the lies. Yes, the mighty North Korean army will crush the imperialist puppet regime in the South! The captives of capitalism in the South will welcome the marching footsteps of the million-men starving army! It doesn't matter North has half the population, and less than 1/10 the economy. The Ju-Che idealism will triumph over South Korea superior technology-oriented armed forces, armed with larger ships, 30 year more advanced fighter crafts, more powerful tanks and artillery! The dear leader will somehow provide the fuels and ammunition needed, though there are only a months worth of war-supply left in the entire North Korean armed forces.
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Posts: 360 		  Quote jiangweibaoye Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02-Nov-2006 at 11:38
It really depends on how effective the N. Korean army is.  If the army is reliable (meaning loyal to the Kim regime, adequately supplied to equipment and food), then they can probably takeout Seoul.
 
Then you get to the rest of S. Korea, where there is real doubt about the N. Korean army's effectiveness.  It will go without saying that the S. Korean/ US will have air superiority, thus slowing the advance of the N. Koreans.  Air Superiority will also mean that the supply routes will be retarded.
 
Another issue is what will the Chinese do?  Will they sit back and watch, or will they retaliate by suspending oil shipments. 
 
If the N. Koreans run out of oil, I just don't see them doing much outside of capturing Seoul.
 
Final note.  Nobody wins in a war.  Everybody losses.
 
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Posts: 580 		  Quote Siege Tower Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02-Nov-2006 at 15:43
you are right, i my opinion, China & Russia wouldn't allow NATO to attack NK, because they dont want to see a united Korea, it will be a bigger threat, also, if China continue to allow NK to grow, a will be a threat


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Posts: 360 		  Quote jiangweibaoye Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02-Nov-2006 at 16:18
SiegeTower,
 
I think for China, it is less of a unified Korea that they don't want as much as having a US presence on China's border.  I think that China would be okay with a united Korea, as long as the US presence was gone.
 
As far as Russia is concerned, it may be to their advantage that there is a unified Korea, so she can sell more Oil & gas to the Koreans.  Again, it is all negated if there is a US presence in a unified Korea.
 
Keep in mind that this current situation is the result of actions taken by the N. Koreans and the US.  What a mess!
 
Jiangwei
 
 
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Posts: 3335 		  Quote pekau Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03-Nov-2006 at 19:40

If another Korean War breaks out, it could be said that N. Korea would win the war.

Before I talk, N. Korea don't have enough food to support the army... is a popular misconception. Food is available in any countries in the world. Sudan, considered by United Nations as the poorest country in the world, has enough food to support all starving Sudan people. And yet, they starve and die like North Koreans. Why?

 

Money Money Money It's a rich man's world!

 

Government controls all the food production in N. Korea. North Korea had enough food production to support over a million troops for over 50 years. Why not another 50 years? Though Western propaganda sees N. Korea as weak and slowly dying Communist regime like U.S.S.R. Sorry Bush. That's not the case at all.

 

Furthermore, we have this air supremacy. Excuse me for saying this, but who came out with the idea that air supremacy will change the tide of war? I can see everyone pointing their fingers to Britain during WWII, but that's only because German troops could not attack Britain until they cross the sea. (Tanks and infantry cannot walk on water like Christ can.)

 

Even if U.S. manage to bring out stealth, they will not be able to stop hundreds of N. Korean tanks. Especially in modern period, flying aircraft began to lose its significance in war. Advanced anti-air missiles and guns can easily shoot down enemy aircrafts. Most of air forces these days take part in stealth or show air artillery-like support for their ground troops. U.S. is currently spending huge money to develop fighters with their speed greater than Mach 8. (That's over 8 times the speed of sound!!!) 

 

South Koreans... I hate to say this since I am South Korean... but our nation is not well known for patriotism these days. I know this because I live in that nation. Armed N. Korean will not be stopped by guerrilla militants of South Koreans. Once the South Korean forces fall, our nation is toasted.

 

I answered these based on the fact that no other foreign interventions would occur. If U.S., China, Russia and other nations get involved... God knows what will happen. It's so easy to keep comparing one to another...

 

Anyways, have fun. And don't forget... South Korea is experiencing serious military reform. Perhaps the tide of war change will change.

 

And you people of the West, N. Korea has little, if any, nuclear weapons. Even if they have it, China will do whatever it takes to oppose it. North Korea without Chinese support will make N. Korea's future quite uncertain indeed. 

 

 
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Posts: 360 		  Quote jiangweibaoye Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03-Nov-2006 at 22:37
Pekau,

I agree to a extent what you are saying.  However, what I stated about Air Superiority is a contributing factor in a potential war in Korea.  It will slow the advance of the N. Korean army.  I can draw the comparison between air superiority and Admiral Yi's decorated achievement.

Admiral Yi's accomplishment against many odds deserves admiration, but naval success generally is a contributing factor in a war.  At the end of it all, the foot soldier is the ultimate factor in the outcome of any conflict.

That is why I stated that it really depends on the N. Korean Army's reliability.  Being well fed it the first order of business.  Second is loyality & moral of the troops.  Third is training & equipment.  If any of these are lacking, you may see mass desertion within the N. Korean army just like what happen with Saddam and his vaulted Republican Guards.

Also, you statement on the tanks is valid, but I go back to the oil statement I made.  Tanks cannot move without oil.

I maybe wrong, but I think the S. Koreans are more patriotic than you give them credit for.  Also, there is a misconception of the Chinese influence in N. Korea.  It is not as great as most believe.  The N. Koreans generally do what they want, regardless of what China or anybody else for that matter says.  Yes, China has the most influence, but it did not stop the N. Koreans from testing that bomb.

Jiangwei
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Posts: 81 		  Quote galvatron Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03-Nov-2006 at 23:26

I can say in a war nobody win the innocents  civilian will be the biggest loser  but the logicial good one will always win ,without oil ,food and morale ,that is no way North Korea will win over South Korea ,China shall learn a lesson because the Korea war in 1950-53 ,we oversea chinese face manydiscriminate and  hardship in south east asian nation we resident .
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Posts: 568 		  Quote Gundamor Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04-Nov-2006 at 08:34
Originally posted by pekau

Even if U.S. manage to bring out stealth, they will not be able to stop hundreds of N. Korean tanks. Especially in modern period, flying aircraft began to lose its significance in war. Advanced anti-air missiles and guns can easily shoot down enemy aircrafts. Most of air forces these days take part in stealth or show air artillery-like support for their ground troops. is currently spending huge money to develop fighters with their speed greater than Mach 8. (That's over 8 times the speed of sound!!!


I wasnt going to counter you since you said you based your opinion on North vs South only engagement. Though I do give the ROK alot more credit then you. You did however add the U.S. which since its stationed there and will obviously be involved I will comment. First their are no fighters in development that can come close to Mach 8. The few classified test ones that claim to come close to this are not conventional air force fighters/bombers. Did you serve as a Katusa or in the ROK or police? You apperently have no idea how the border is designed and North Korean conventional forces which are extremely ancient will probalby be anhilated with ease IMO. If they attack anytime other then the winter its even worse for them. I dont see them getting more then a few miles or so in before their stopped dead. The border area is created to funnel and destroy the enemy and the North's losses early will be very high as they try and clear through it. They will also lose time here which is their biggest enemy if they plan to succeed and is the basic design of what we called the "the speed bump".

You might want to read on modern warfare as air superiority is king of conventional warfare. There is no easy shoot down of these aircraft either. North Korea has alot of old soviet anti-air systems and the small amount of modern ones that they could have(not known for fact) would have little overall effect. Aircraft definitly can be shot down but if it was so easy would the U.S. and other world powers sink so much money into it? Do you know how many vehicles the Iraqis lost to air power in both wars? Its quite staggering. You might say thats a dessert environment, well the Korean terrain isnt the greatest for concealment either.

Fuel is also a problem for North Korea as military defectors have stated how little training they get becuase of the lack of fuel(pilots only 4 hours a year give me a break). This could obviously mean they have it stockpiled for such an occasion as a war but the quality of training with vehicles, aircraft and other fuel related things is probably horrible compared to modern army standards. I also dont remember their night vision capabilities. I assume they have them but if its lacking far behind they'll suffer greatly at night.

Their only chance for success and probably limited at that is the large special forces which will attempt to come behind and attack the rear echelon. Even their we cant be sure the calibre of troops. I remember on one of my tours their the North sent some SF troops via submarine and they were apprehended quite quickly. Though they did manage to kill some police and throw the military on alert they didnt seem all that special. The North will be fighting for its exsistance so we would also see them probably use chemical warfare and other types of bio weapons(if they have them). This possibly on the major population centres as Seoul is already within their artillery range.


I really dont see China being against the U.S. if its the North who is the aggressor. It would play into their hands to buddy up with the South and even Japan to create a post war Korea together which would allow China the chance to get rid of the large U.S. presence there. Creating strong ties between the nations around them will benifit China more as China is already aware of how Korea and Japan grow weary of the constant U.S. presence in their countries. Russia for sure would sit this one out as its got to many problems of concern elsewhere. If anything they would use this conflict and how it is conducted as a screen to deal with some of their internal problems or things like Georgia etc.
    
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Posts: 23 		  Quote AnchoritSybarit Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04-Nov-2006 at 13:25
Thank you Gundimar.  I was about to bite my tongue off trying not to argue with the screen.  I have been arguing since the crisis in Korea over their trying to make nukes when Clinton was President, that fears over the North's military capacity is fear of a paper tiger.
 
In modern warfare numbers are always trumped by high tech.  If not then Saddam would not only still be in power he would still be in Kuwait.  North Korea's vaunted military might and I emphasize might be able to punch through to Seoul as well as of course shelling the city from its fixed artillery positions.  Furthermore as these are fixed positons I believe they would be extremelhy sensitive to counterbattery fire.
 
I remember one possible scenario published in TIME magazine back during the first nuclear crisis.  As opposed to the original Korean conflict where the combtants were confined by the mountainous geography to the small coastal plain area, a 2nd conflict would be marked by Allied (ie US, S Kor) strikes up through the center of the country with mobile and air mobile forces.  The North would have nothing to counter that with...nothing at all.
 
As far as Russian intervention, I completely discount them.  Their military can barely function against internal foes much less project force abroad.  They have neither the will nor the way.
 
The Chinese on the other hand could be a factor.  As has been stated earlier they fear both a United Korea and an American presence on their back door.  I would hope that they also realize that unlike 1950-53 they could not intervene militarily this time with the same impunity.  In a sense I can see them being the key to solving the Korean problem.  I think Bush has a golden opportunity to offer them the chance to dismantle the NK nuclear program (with undisputable proof) by force if necessary.  There is the opportunity to use the carrot and stick approach. 
 
The stick:  if you do not by December 1 or January 1 stop the nuclear program then we will and in the process reunify the peninsula.
The carrot:  if you do stop the program, then as you withdraw your forces we will withdraw ours.  The result may/may not be a united Korea but it will be a Korea without an American military presence.
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Posts: 412 		  Quote Krum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04-Nov-2006 at 13:33
NOBODY wins,EVERYBODY loses.The Apocalypse and the end of the world is coming.
It is only the dead who have seen the end of war.
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Posts: 3335 		  Quote pekau Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04-Nov-2006 at 23:21

Yes, I know what are in the borders between N. and S. Korea. Thousands of mines. Almost impassable without managing to clear all the mines and that would be offer enough time for S. Koreans to prepare for invasion. No surprise attack is going to work on land, so I assume that sea supremacy will become an important factor.

Just for fun factor... did you know that North Korea made some underground tunnels that lead to South Korea? Not for invasion, of course  but they made it for their spies to infiltrate to South Korea easier. North Korea denies this, saying that it was the work of black marketers... Good excuse North. Keep it up and maybe we will believe you...someday.

 

And yes, I know how air superiority brought some critical advantage in Gulf War. However, that's only because Iraq did not possess much of anti-air weapons. Kuwait endured because Saudi Arabic and Iranian soldiers managed to keep the Iraqi soldiers out. By the way, did you know that Bin Laden was helping Saudi Arabics at that time?

North Korea is totally different factor. You do not have open dessert field for air force to simply bombard the land forces. (I know this because I live South Korea. And when you have time, you may find that air force is more vulnerable than you think. Flak 88mm, a German anti-air weapon, is still very efficient against the aircrafts... Plus, U.S. is not going to drag all their supersonic jets to Korea unless their nation is being attacked. (Ex. Pearl Harbor)

 

And about the fuel. North Korea has fair amount of coals that could use... and about oil... you have to understand that just because N. Korea lacks it does not mean South Korea will have any advantage either. Both nations do not produce oil... yet. They have to import it from other nations. South gets from his allies. North will get it from China and maybe Russia. Go figure.

 

And just because North Korea does not have fancy guns as U.S. does not mean they won't do well with over million troops. After all, the enemy is South Korea, not U.S.

 

Let's face it. U.S. government is becoming more stupid than ever. They failed to land in Mars one time because one moron typed the critical distance required for landing in miles instead of meters. Believe me; government can do many stupid things.

 

But I agree with Krum. Unless North Korea gets modern Rommel or something... North or South will have a stalemate...

 



Edited by pekau - 05-Nov-2006 at 10:35
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Posts: 360 		  Quote jiangweibaoye Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06-Nov-2006 at 16:28

Not to start a argument that stray from the original question, but air superiority did not help the U.S. in the Vietnam War.  I think Iraq was a situation where Air Power was magnified.  Iraq is a relatively flat country where everything stands out like a raisin on a bed of flour.  Geographical situation dictates how effective air power can be.

Yes, technology is very important but if your enemy outnumbers you three to one, you got a problem.  Look at our situation in Iraq.  Cannot pacify the country because we do not have enough ground troops.  All the technology in the world will not help us.  We just simply need more troops.  Yes, there is a difference between winning a battle and winning a war. 
 
However, like I stated earlier, I don't see the N. Koreans doing much.  I have huge doubts about their effectiveness & loyality & determination & resources.
 
I agree with Gundamor & Anchorit and would like to make a educated guess on a potential conflict. 
 
If the N. Koreans are the aggressors, China will cut oil supplies to N. Korea, while striking a deal with the US agreeing that when all is said and done, the N. Korean regime will collapse, Korea is united, & the US leaves.
 
Just my guess, but maybe the best scenario for regional peace.
 
Jiangwei
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Posts: 3224 		  Quote Knights Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07-Nov-2006 at 04:01
Originally posted by jiangweibaoye

 
If the N. Koreans are the aggressors, China will cut oil supplies to N. Korea, while striking a deal with the US agreeing that when all is said and done, the N. Korean regime will collapse, Korea is united, & the US leaves.
 



Good thought Jiang!
Also, while North Korea may have a very professional full-time army and strict regime, South Korea has the support of the UN and various treaties. UNder these, many nations such as USA, Australia, India, France and Great Britain will assist South Korea - giving the the 'Reds' very little hope of winning a war.
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Posts: 211 		  Quote Qin Dynasty Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07-Nov-2006 at 09:32

Militarily speaking, i cant see any chance that the South could stand if it failed to resist the overwhelming North human and fire power wave at the beginning of the war. As if the South troops was driven out of the pennisula, the war was possiblely ended. There would not be an amphibious landing like Normandy landing to regain the ground. It is simply due to the shortage of manpower of the South and its traditional alliance.

The South is at a disfovored situation at the very beginning, its capital, Seoul, the heart of South's economic, political and industry is within the range of North artilleries.  The North could shell the city at any time favouring them. I cant figure out an effective way for the South to address this problem. All the long range artilleries are hidden under the ground and not easy to destory by counter bombarding. The number of artilleries and tanks is huge while most territory of South is plain which favors large battles for tanks.  North soilders and commanders are also competent and skillful and what is most important, contray to the common notion of westerners, they are abosulutely loyal to their leader and feel honored to fight dead for him.
 
South has chance to turn the situation if they could hold the Pusan circle. As it near the sea where the reinforcement and supply from the alliance went easier, the air raid and navy fire power doubled, the south might manage to get though the toughest time.  As the North extended its force to the more opener area in the South, it was also getting fragile for its anti aircrafts ability was limited and could not rival the alliance air force in general. The North's logistics also exposed problems due to the same reason.  Thus, it was getting harder to advance further south. The casualties rised astonishingly that might bordering the edge to cause the collapse of the morales of the soldiers. It would finally be a war of meat grinder that every participant in this war did not hope. The nominal winner was the one who had a stronger nerve and lasted a bit longer.
 
Anywar, even the North took the south, it would hard for it to maintain it. And, as the war probably exhausted its limited resource, the survival of the regime itself might be questionable.
 
We do not want a war, we love peace all the time.
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Posts: 3335 		  Quote pekau Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07-Nov-2006 at 16:03

We want peace, not war? Well, thats interesting

It is easy to understand most of humanity, if not all, wants peace. But history proved long time ago, and still today, that war inevitable. We no longer have wars in North America or Europe, but thats simply because the warfare just moved from Western world to Eastern World. Africa is witnessing so much genocide that if all genocide victims are added up, the crime against humanity would easily beat Hitlers holocaust.

 

Eastern Europe, considered among the civilized nations by Western nations, are not doing well either. Constant civil wars erupt everyday. Genocides against other ethics are familiar news.  If not for Western intervention, who knows what could happen there. South American government is run by two leaders; the poor and corrupted government and drug lords. And as for Middle East, well mein Gott

 

Anyways, the point is that people still wage wars because they misunderstand, they cant get rid of their pride, they cant tolerate others existence, they hate anything that goes against them well this hate list could go on and on

 

Like energizers. (Best battery commercial, by the way)

 

And I did not say that air force is insignificant. It still plays important roles in modern warfare, but its no longer as significant as in previously fought wars such as WWII. I know the battle scale is different, but just scale it to war in Iraq. American aircrafts did inflict heavy damages to Iraqi military, but with Americas advance technology compare to Iraqs WWI-like military what do you expect? Iraq literally has few, if any, air forces. They were too busy concentrating on infantry, tanks and artillery (And with their budget, thats understandable) I actually found out not too long ago that Iraq possessed very little anti-air weapons and those that actually served in war against American invaders were poorly equipped and became very insignificant in the war. (I know its obvious, but at least I have the evidence now.)

 

I am just saying that I would rather have 100 tanks than 100 airplanes when fighting a war.

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Posts: 294 		  Quote Maljkovic Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08-Nov-2006 at 10:29
    Quite simply, the winner would be the one who stays in defensive position. Why? To put it simple, North has numbers, South has quality. If NK army were to move to the south, they would be cut to shreads by superior SK weaponry and their huge supply lines would be slimed by the SK airforce. If however the SK army would invade the North, we would witness a rerun of Stalingrad with emense losses on both side finally resulting in the NK numbers taking the victory.
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Posts: 3335 		  Quote pekau Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08-Nov-2006 at 19:52
Rerun of Stalingrad... that's slightly exaggerated example.
 
You never know. Nazi Germany was not very well-equiped armies, like North Korea. Mass German invasion against France in WWII is common misconception. Most of the supply transportation was done by horses, though German propaganda made sure that what the enemy and German people saw was expensive jeeps.
 
And if North Korea gets another great general like Rommel and Guderian, who knows? France was never expected to beaten by Germans in such a short period.
 
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