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KARS-AKHALKALAKI-TBILISI-BAKU RAILWAY DEAL
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    Posted: 31-Jan-2007 at 01:49
I believe its 5km or 5 miles, not sure

Originally posted by DayI

Bye bye Armenia, this time even Russia cant save you LOL


well thats not nice...
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Originally posted by ArmenianSurvival


 If Azerbaijan's "goal", so-to-speak, is to retake Karabakh, how are they going to defend a pipeline which spans through miles of emptiness in a state of war? Does anyone know how close this pipeline is to the Armenian border or to other "hot zones" in the region?
 
Well Turkey and Georgia will also have an interest in protecting the pipeline so i would assume if Azerbaijan was to take action to take back Karabagh then Turkish and Georgian troops would go into Azerbaijan to protect the pipeline.
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Originally posted by AyKurt

Well Turkey and Georgia will also have an interest in protecting the pipeline so i would assume if Azerbaijan was to take action to take back Karabagh then Turkish and Georgian troops would go into Azerbaijan to protect the pipeline.


     In that case Russia will get involved which will be bad news for everybody. I don't think Azerbaijan is going to risk an international pipeline and an international war just to conquer a few mountains. In my opinion this pipeline basically eliminates Azerbaijan's military option against Karabakh (or perhaps escalates it? but they're not stupid).

     The flipside of this is Armenia gets the short end of the stick, or more realistically, no stick. But unfortunately this is something they are already used to, and they did not anticipate to be part of such a deal considering who their neighbors are.

     But hey, its not like they can't add to the pipeline sometime in the future.

Originally posted by mamikon

Originally posted by DayI

Bye bye Armenia, this time even Russia cant save you LOL

well thats not nice...


     Prime example of what I meant by "considering who their neighbors are". This is the mentality of many people who surround Armenia. Whats funny is they think this pipeline is heavily guarded for hundreds of miles or its invincible.
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Posts: 236 		  Quote AyKurt Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 31-Jan-2007 at 17:17
Originally posted by ArmenianSurvival


     In that case Russia will get involved which will be bad news for everybody. I don't think Azerbaijan is going to risk an international pipeline and an international war just to conquer a few mountains. In my opinion this pipeline basically eliminates Azerbaijan's military option against Karabakh (or perhaps escalates it? but they're not stupid).

     The flipside of this is Armenia gets the short end of the stick, or more realistically, no stick. But unfortunately this is something they are already used to, and they did not anticipate to be part of such a deal considering who their neighbors are.

     But hey, its not like they can't add to the pipeline sometime in the future. 
 
No i dont agree.  The Turkish troops would not be included in Azerbaijans campaign and would most likely be protecting the pipeline before Azerbaijan starts to retake Karabagh.
Any military action would involve only Armenian and Azerbaijani forces.
 
So, if in the next 5-10 years the pipeline in Azerbaijan becomes vulnerable to an obscure threat and Turkey kindly offers to provide troops for extra security, then we can be sure what will happen next. LOL
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Posts: 1460 		  Quote ArmenianSurvival Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 31-Jan-2007 at 17:41
Originally posted by AyKurt

No i dont agree.  The Turkish troops would not be included in Azerbaijans campaign and would most likely be protecting the pipeline before Azerbaijan starts to retake Karabagh


    What do you think is going to happen when the Armenians break the Azeri front line and penetrate their territory by a couple of miles and reach the pipeline? They will naturally clash with Turkish troops, and Turkey's involvement will warrant Russian interference (afterall if Turkey can stick their nose in Azerbaijan's business then Russia can do the same with Armenia). I'm not sure they want to go this route.


Originally posted by AyKurt

Any military action would involve only Armenian and Azerbaijani forces.


     So how exactly would Azerbaijan hope to win?
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Posts: 2408 		  Quote DayI Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 31-Jan-2007 at 17:43
Originally posted by ArmenianSurvival



Originally posted by mamikon

Originally posted by DayI

Bye bye Armenia, this time even Russia cant save you LOL

well thats not nice...


     Prime example of what I meant by "considering who their neighbors are". This is the mentality of many people who surround Armenia. Whats funny is they think this pipeline is heavily guarded for hundreds of miles or its invincible.


Shocked man, did I offend you that much? I only used my little "thinking like a Greek" style LOL

So if that pipeline is visible or isnt guarded at all, whats armenia gonna do? Sabotage those pipelines?
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I would like to visit Georgia and Azerbajian. So such a railway project is very much welcomed by me, as a travel loverSmile
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Posts: 1460 		  Quote ArmenianSurvival Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 31-Jan-2007 at 17:57
Originally posted by DayI

Shocked man, did I offend you that much? I only used my little "thinking like a Greek" style LOL


     You didn't offend me, you helped illustrate one of my points. I have nothing against you Smile


Originally posted by DayI

So if that pipeline is visible or isnt guarded at all, whats armenia gonna do? Sabotage those pipelines?


     Armenia isn't the only area that the pipeline is avoiding. All I'm saying is that Azerbaijan is more limited in a military option against Armenia. In a situation of war, all that would have to be done is to sever the pipeline in one of the hundreds of miles that it occupies.
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Posts: 236 		  Quote AyKurt Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 31-Jan-2007 at 18:08
Originally posted by ArmenianSurvival



    What do you think is going to happen when the Armenians break the Azeri front line and penetrate their territory by a couple of miles and reach the pipeline? They will naturally clash with Turkish troops, and Turkey's involvement will warrant Russian interference (afterall if Turkey can stick their nose in Azerbaijan's business then Russia can do the same with Armenia). I'm not sure they want to go this route.


Originally posted by AyKurt

Any military action would involve only Armenian and Azerbaijani forces.


     So how exactly would Azerbaijan hope to win?
 
This is only one possible scenario.  There are others some which would not involve military action.
 
You seem overly confident that Russia will back you up regardless.  The realities are changing all the time and Turkey and Azerbaijan are becoming more and more important especially with trade.  Now how much is Russia prepared to lose just for Armenia?
 
If Armenian troops do manage to break the frontline and head for the pipeline, then of course they would encounter Turkish troops but Turkish troops only responsibility would be to protect the pipeline.  If Armenia was to attack the pipeline then a Turkish reaction wouldn not be considered to be "getting involved".  Armenia came to the Turkish soldiers not the other way about. Wink
 
Anyway you also seem to be overly confident in Armenias military abilities.  Azerbaijan is obviously playing a waiting game, she's growing at a phenomenal rate, raking in billions, and of course spending it on the military.  So it would outcompete the Armenians where hardware is conscerned.  Also Turkish Generals are actively working on developing the Azeri military discipline.  Armenia may have been able to occupy Karabagh in the past but in the future Azerbaijan would be far superior militarily in terms of hardware, discipline and skill that i seriously doubt Armenia would have a chance in hell.  To be honest.
 
Of course this is only one possible scenario.  Nothing more.
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Posts: 2408 		  Quote DayI Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 31-Jan-2007 at 19:39
Originally posted by ArmenianSurvival

Originally posted by DayI

Shocked man, did I offend you that much? I only used my little "thinking like a Greek" style LOL


     You didn't offend me, you helped illustrate one of my points. I have nothing against you Smile
Ok then, i'll explain why I made such a "sarcastic" comment.

IF Turkey becomes a alternative way to export energy to Europe, that means a LOT for the Russian economy not only economy but also politically. Why? Remember they used their resources (energy) against Ukraine (also belarus?) as a political pressure, so with by-passing their energy means also losing influence of Russia in that region. ALso remember Kazakhs have a project to build a pipeline (tingiz petrol) through Turkey too, im sure that will again by-pass armenia. If those all happen then will Turkey (also azerbaycan) have some more political/strategical importance and power which he can use to his unfriendly neighbors (or maybe in the far future even against europe).

In this case what will those following country's do?

-Russia; they are already seeking for an alternative way to export their resources to Europe (balkans-->greece). Or they will build new pipelines trough kazakhstan to China. They wont have anymore their strategical importance nor as much as the past their influence in former sovyet country's.

-Europe; is no-more in danger with russian threats, is now more confortabeler with their energy who comes from a "eu-friendly" Turkey.

-Azerbaycan; will improve economically a lot, the rest can you guess i think.

-Armenia; ....watch and scratch? I mean i couldnt think of any positive things gonna happen for Armenia's side. Let me some it up:

-->strategically they are nothing all the energy who's passing trough caucasia are by-passed
-->economically will they be the same as today or much more worser
-->politically is there almost anything left then the claims of Armenian genocide...


You know what, soros-supported revolution is coming to Armenia...

If you think im forgetting Iran as an option, no im not. Because I dont know what Iran has to give to Armenia except some nukes?


Originally posted by DayI

So if that pipeline is visible or isnt guarded at all, whats armenia gonna do? Sabotage those pipelines?


     Armenia isn't the only area that the pipeline is avoiding. All I'm saying is that Azerbaijan is more limited in a military option against Armenia. In a situation of war, all that would have to be done is to sever the pipeline in one of the hundreds of miles that it occupies.

Yes azerbaycan alone is limited at military operation, but Azerbaycan now isnt Azerbaycan who he was at 94', dont underestimate them.

I dont think Azerbaycan is stupid enough to build a pipeline trought karabagh or any other "warzones", also if they do and armenia attacks those or those pipelines who is currently outside the reach of armenia. Then it means for Armenia officially war with 3 country's... I understand you, armenia is your pride this or that but you must understand armenia isnt israel, or who's attacking armenia wouldnt be arabs ether.


Edited by DayI - 31-Jan-2007 at 19:42
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Originally posted by DayI

Ok then, i'll explain why I made such a "sarcastic" comment.

IF Turkey becomes a alternative way to export energy to Europe, that means a LOT for the Russian economy not only economy but also politically. Why? Remember they used their resources (energy) against Ukraine (also belarus?) as a political pressure, so with by-passing their energy means also losing influence of Russia in that region. ALso remember Kazakhs have a project to build a pipeline (tingiz petrol) through Turkey too, im sure that will again by-pass armenia. If those all happen then will Turkey (also azerbaycan) have some more political/strategical importance and power which he can use to his unfriendly neighbors (or maybe in the far future even against europe).

In this case what will those following country's do?

-Russia; they are already seeking for an alternative way to export their resources to Europe (balkans-->greece). Or they will build new pipelines trough kazakhstan to China. They wont have anymore their strategical importance nor as much as the past their influence in former sovyet country's.

-Europe; is no-more in danger with russian threats, is now more confortabeler with their energy who comes from a "eu-friendly" Turkey.

-Azerbaycan; will improve economically a lot, the rest can you guess i think.

-Armenia; ....watch and scratch? I mean i couldnt think of any positive things gonna happen for Armenia's side. Let me some it up:

-->strategically they are nothing all the energy who's passing trough caucasia are by-passed
-->economically will they be the same as today or much more worser
-->politically is there almost anything left then the claims of Armenian genocide...


You know what, soros-supported revolution is coming to Armenia...

If you think im forgetting Iran as an option, no im not. Because I dont know what Iran has to give to Armenia except some nukes?


     I'm quite aware of the petrol situation in Russia and now developing around the Caucasus as well as its political implications. Azerbaijan will be in a better position politically speaking, and more prepared for future conflict. Thats the reason why they will sit and wait. This is obvious. But what makes you think Karabakh's army is the same as it was in 94? They are no longer a bunch of Fedayins with outdated weapons and no tanks, no planes, etc. Plus, Azerbaijan needs to train for a guerilla war. Theres not going to be head-to-head confrontations in an open field (which would be advantageous to Azerbaijan). The geography favors Armenian guerilla fighters, not up-to-date tanks and military machines.

     Also in the last war a high proportion of Azerbaijan's soldiers were from Talysh and Lezgin national minorities. Turkish officers cannot teach these people to care about Azerbaijan's ego. This is why Azerbaijan hasn't housed its refugees in spite of its improving economy, because they want to raise the next generation of motivated soldiers. But the main difference between the past war and future conflict is that Armenians now hold defensive positions in mountainous Karabakh, a luxury which the Azeri soldiers had in the last war.

Originally posted by DayI

I dont think Azerbaycan is stupid enough to build a pipeline trought karabagh or any other "warzones", also if they do and armenia attacks those or those pipelines who is currently outside the reach of armenia. Then it means for Armenia officially war with 3 country's


     The pipeline doesn't go through Karabakh, but nearby. What do you think is going to happen...Turkish and Georgian troops are going to enter Armenia and drag Russia into armed conflict? Any support given will be done under veils like the last war. Anyways, all we are doing is predicting, which is pretty pointless. I generally don't disagree with your viewpoints, it seems we only disagree on selective things like the outcome of a future conflict, which can be done in another thread....

Originally posted by AyKurt

You seem overly confident that Russia will back you up regardless.  The realities are changing all the time and Turkey and Azerbaijan are becoming more and more important especially with trade.  Now how much is Russia prepared to lose just for Armenia?


     How much is Russia prepared to lose for Armenia? Russia will be protecting its interests seeing as they own a large part of Armenia's economy and basically sponsor the ruling regime. Do you think Armenia trusts Russia? No...but they are confident Russia will protect its own interests like anybody else.

Originally posted by AyKurt

If Armenian troops do manage to break the frontline and head for the pipeline, then of course they would encounter Turkish troops but Turkish troops only responsibility would be to protect the pipeline.  If Armenia was to attack the pipeline then a Turkish reaction wouldn not be considered to be "getting involved".  Armenia came to the Turkish soldiers not the other way about. Wink


     Turkey will not risk open conflict with Armenia because of the Russia factor. Why would Turkey send its troops to protect the pipeline in Azerbaijan if they were not anticipating a military conflict? Their very presence will be proof of their guilt.

Edited by ArmenianSurvival - 01-Feb-2007 at 17:19
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I wouldn't trust Russia so much Armenian_Survival or rely on them so heavily.
 
Recently there has been a growth in the pollitical idea of Turkic-Slavic partnership in Eurasia, Russia could be slowly shifting towards building ties with Turks and co-operating with them.
 
That's why I wouldn't bank on Russia 100% for Armenia
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Originally posted by Bulldog

I wouldn't trust Russia so much Armenian_Survival or rely on them so heavily.
 
Recently there has been a growth in the pollitical idea of Turkic-Slavic partnership in Eurasia, Russia could be slowly shifting towards building ties with Turks and co-operating with them.
 
That's why I wouldn't bank on Russia 100% for Armenia


     So why would Russia let its interests in Armenia be trampled upon by their Turkish "friends"? Either Turkey and Russia will be friends, in which case there will be no conflict with Armenia, or there will be a conflict and Russia will support Armenia and Turkey will support Azerbaijan.
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Cos Russia has alot to gain, read this its pretty interesting
 
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Originally posted by ArmenianSurvival

Originally posted by DayI

Ok then, i'll explain why I made such a "sarcastic" comment.

IF Turkey becomes a alternative way to export energy to Europe, that means a LOT for the Russian economy not only economy but also politically. Why? Remember they used their resources (energy) against Ukraine (also belarus?) as a political pressure, so with by-passing their energy means also losing influence of Russia in that region. ALso remember Kazakhs have a project to build a pipeline (tingiz petrol) through Turkey too, im sure that will again by-pass armenia. If those all happen then will Turkey (also azerbaycan) have some more political/strategical importance and power which he can use to his unfriendly neighbors (or maybe in the far future even against europe).

In this case what will those following country's do?

-Russia; they are already seeking for an alternative way to export their resources to Europe (balkans-->greece). Or they will build new pipelines trough kazakhstan to China. They wont have anymore their strategical importance nor as much as the past their influence in former sovyet country's.

-Europe; is no-more in danger with russian threats, is now more confortabeler with their energy who comes from a "eu-friendly" Turkey.

-Azerbaycan; will improve economically a lot, the rest can you guess i think.

-Armenia; ....watch and scratch? I mean i couldnt think of any positive things gonna happen for Armenia's side. Let me some it up:

-->strategically they are nothing all the energy who's passing trough caucasia are by-passed
-->economically will they be the same as today or much more worser
-->politically is there almost anything left then the claims of Armenian genocide...


You know what, soros-supported revolution is coming to Armenia...

If you think im forgetting Iran as an option, no im not. Because I dont know what Iran has to give to Armenia except some nukes?


     I'm quite aware of the petrol situation in Russia and now developing around the Caucasus as well as its political implications. Azerbaijan will be in a better position politically speaking, and more prepared for future conflict. Thats the reason why they will sit and wait. This is obvious. But what makes you think Karabakh's army is the same as it was in 94? They are no longer a bunch of Fedayins with outdated weapons and no tanks, no planes, etc. Plus, Azerbaijan needs to train for a guerilla war. Theres not going to be head-to-head confrontations in an open field (which would be advantageous to Azerbaijan). The geography favors Armenian guerilla fighters, not up-to-date tanks and military machines.
Azeri soldiers are being trained by Turkish soldiers, Azerbaycan even appointed a Turkish general as their staf chief and you know that Turkish soldiers are experienced in gerilla warfare by fighting against terrorists at mountans.


     Also in the last war a high proportion of Azerbaijan's soldiers were from Talysh and Lezgin national minorities. Turkish officers cannot teach these people to care about Azerbaijan's ego. This is why Azerbaijan hasn't housed its refugees in spite of its improving economy, because they want to raise the next generation of motivated soldiers. But the main difference between the past war and future conflict is that Armenians now hold defensive positions in mountainous Karabakh, a luxury which the Azeri soldiers had in the last war.
oh common man, where you got this bs from. A country in war and has the "luxury" to choose his minoritys as soldiers Shocked It doesnt make sense to me.


Originally posted by DayI

I dont think Azerbaycan is stupid enough to build a pipeline trought karabagh or any other "warzones", also if they do and armenia attacks those or those pipelines who is currently outside the reach of armenia. Then it means for Armenia officially war with 3 country's


     The pipeline doesn't go through Karabakh, but nearby. What do you think is going to happen...Turkish and Georgian troops are going to enter Armenia and drag Russia into armed conflict? Any support given will be done under veils like the last war. Anyways, all we are doing is predicting, which is pretty pointless. I generally don't disagree with your viewpoints, it seems we only disagree on selective things like the outcome of a future conflict, which can be done in another thread....
I dont think they will enter Armenia because it is no ones interest to do so, only Azerbaycan maybe who will get the fully support of them. Invading Armenia will be more easyer you know, cuz they have an excuse to invade while now they have only claims. Like usa did it with lies to back up their acchievements.



Turkey will not risk open conflict with Armenia because of the Russia factor. Why would Turkey send its troops to protect the pipeline in Azerbaijan if they were not anticipating a military conflict? Their very presence will be proof of their guilt.
why not? Turkey - Georgia - Azerbaycan pay for that project and they cant watch it destroyed, it is very normal they will protect their interests --> pipelines from any outside danger.


Edited by DayI - 01-Feb-2007 at 17:51
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Originally posted by ArmenianSurvival

 

Originally posted by AyKurt

You seem overly confident that Russia will back you up regardless.  The realities are changing all the time and Turkey and Azerbaijan are becoming more and more important especially with trade.  Now how much is Russia prepared to lose just for Armenia?


     How much is Russia prepared to lose for Armenia? Russia will be protecting its interests seeing as they own a large part of Armenia's economy and basically sponsor the ruling regime. Do you think Armenia trusts Russia? No...but they are confident Russia will protect its own interests like anybody else.
Russian interests in Armenia do not outweigh her economic interests with Turkey, Azerbaijan and Georgia.  Azerbaijan will soon spend more on her military than Armenias entire state budget of around $1 billion.  Armenias entire GDP is only $6.6 billion.  Im not sure how much of Armenia's economy is controled by Russians but Armenia loosing her occupation of Karabagh will not affect it too much.

Originally posted by ArmenianSurvival

Originally posted by AyKurt

If Armenian troops do manage to break the frontline and head for the pipeline, then of course they would encounter Turkish troops but Turkish troops only responsibility would be to protect the pipeline.  If Armenia was to attack the pipeline then a Turkish reaction wouldn not be considered to be "getting involved".  Armenia came to the Turkish soldiers not the other way about. Wink


     Turkey will not risk open conflict with Armenia because of the Russia factor. Why would Turkey send its troops to protect the pipeline in Azerbaijan if they were not anticipating a military conflict? Their very presence will be proof of their guilt.
I dont think you understand.  Turkey would be protecting the pipeline.  If Armenian troops make there way towards the pipeline then Turkey would have every right to defend it and it would be very much encouraged by the international community, given the importance of the pipeline.  The guilt will only be with the Armenian troops.
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Aykurt
Russian interests in Armenia do not outweigh her economic interests with Turkey, Azerbaijan and Georgia.
 
Infact I wouldn't be suprised if Russia strengthens ties with Turkey and Azerbaijan.
 
I wouldnt be suprised by anything, if it's in Russia's interests they will do it, they have pretty pragmatist pollitics.
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Eurasianism part 2

http://www.turkishdailynews.com.tr/article.php?enewsid=52148
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